Pablo Torre Finds Out The Prop-Betification of Everything, with the Forefather of Prediction Markets
Feb 3, 2026
James Surowiecki, journalist and author of The Wisdom of Crowds, explores the rise of prediction markets and their spread into politics and sports. He traces how markets differ from polls, why incentives matter, and the risks of insider trading and manipulation. The conversation looks at regulation, why some questions suit markets, and practical warnings for traders.
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Top-100 NHL Gamer
- James Surowiecki once ranked in the top 100 globally at the EA Sports NHL video game.
- Pablo uses this to humanize Surowiecki and frame his deep familiarity with niche systems.
When Crowds Outsmart Experts
- Groups can outperform experts when they are diverse, independent, and aggregated properly.
- James Surowiecki argues prediction markets and betting mirror this dynamic when conditions are right.
Sports Betting Drove Market Growth
- Prediction markets pivoted to sports because that's where steady revenue and liquidity are.
- Surowiecki explains this shift and how regulators and states respond differently to such products.
