The Bulwark Podcast Nate Silver: Underdog Story
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Aug 9, 2024 
Nate Silver, a renowned statistician famous for his polling and political analysis, joins Tim Miller to talk about the shifting political landscape ahead of the election. They discuss how Kamala Harris could be a formidable candidate against Trump and analyze polling trends in key states. The conversation also covers the application of game theory in electoral strategy and the risks of a potential Trump comeback. Additionally, they explore the gambling world, including tips for sports betting and the responsibilities of risk-takers in today's tech-driven society.
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Harris Takes the Lead
- Kamala Harris emerges as the slight favorite in the presidential race, according to Nate Silver's model.
- Polls show Harris narrowly leading, and the model suggests a potential momentum shift.
Biden's Low Odds
- Nate Silver's model predicted a low chance of Biden winning (26%) before he withdrew.
- Silver personally estimated it even lower (10-15%), highlighting Biden's campaign struggles.
Harris Under Pressure
- Kamala Harris' improved performance may be due to thriving under pressure.
- Her time as VP provided valuable experience but also constraints she's now free from.