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Presidential campaign stops might not sway voters as much as we think. Analysis of campaign visits from 2008-2020 shows a focus on friendly territories and strategies differ between candidates. Biden and Trump took different approaches in the pandemic. VP picks and campaign stops have a limited impact on election outcomes.
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Quick takeaways
- Campaign stops by presidential candidates have limited impact on voter behavior, focusing more on mobilization than persuasion.
- Symbolic value of campaign stops lies in conveying messages and shaping public perception through local media coverage.
Deep dives
Campaign Visits Influence Voters
Campaign stops by presidential candidates are found to have limited impact on voter behavior, with statistical analysis from 2008 to 2020 showing that they generally do not significantly sway vote shares. While some exceptions like the increased margin for Barack Obama and John McCain in 2008 were noted, most campaign visits do not lead to substantial vote shifts. The mobilization versus persuasion aspects are explored, highlighting that candidates often target friendly territories for mobilization rather than aiming to persuade undecided voters.
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Discover
highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode