Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg Surveillance TV: May 14, 2025
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May 14, 2025 The discussion dives into the strength of the U.S. dollar amidst trade tensions and evolving economic landscapes. Experts analyze risks related to global growth and inflation. Insights on American consumer spending reveal trends shaped by wage growth and market dynamics. The impacts of tariffs on the Federal Reserve's forecasts are debated, alongside interest rate strategies. The conversation also touches on selective investments in China's equity market, highlighting tech and finance opportunities against a backdrop of geopolitical shifts.
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Tariffs Drive Stagflation Risks
- Ongoing tariffs create a stagflationary shock with higher inflation and lower growth.
- Technological and financial sectors lead US exceptionalism amid these headwinds.
Selective Optimism on China
- China's growth forecasts are improving quickly due to some fiscal support.
- Structural challenges like aging population still constrain long-term Chinese equity potential.
Healthy Yet Moderating Consumer
- Consumers continue spending supported by wage growth, though spending growth is moderating.
- Lower income wage growth increased, helping maintain consumer credit health despite general nervousness.