Reasonably Optimistic Was 2025 the ‘end of America’? Of course not.
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Dec 31, 2025 The podcast dives into the myth of impending doom by zooming out from alarming news narratives. It discusses positive economic indicators like GDP growth and a cooling labor market. Interestingly, while high-profile attacks make headlines, crime rates are actually declining. Life expectancy in the U.S. is improving, and technology is reshaping youth experiences, sometimes positively. With advancements in AI and self-driving technology, there are ample reasons for optimism about the future.
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News Bias Distorts Big Picture
- News favors unusual and scary events, which skews perceptions of reality.
- Megan McArdle shows that zooming out reveals a functioning economy despite noisy data.
Economic Noise Overstates Collapse Risk
- Real GDP grew 3.8% annualized in Q2 2025 and inflation moderated to about 2–2.6%.
- McArdle argues that this mix indicates growth, not economic collapse amid noisy reports.
Cooling Labor Market, Not Apocalypse
- The jobless rate ticked up into the mid-4%s but employers still added jobs like 64,000 in November.
- McArdle frames this as a cooling labor market, not a job apocalypse.