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Dwarkesh Podcast
Eliezer Yudkowsky - Why AI Will Kill Us, Aligning LLMs, Nature of Intelligence, SciFi, & Rationality
Apr 6, 2023
04:03:25
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Quick takeaways
- Addressing AI alignment urgently requires a proactive and comprehensive approach to align AI systems with human values.
- The urgency lies in not remaining silent and taking action to raise awareness of the risks involved in AI development.
- Training AI systems to assist in the alignment process by distinguishing between valid arguments and filtering training data could lead to genuinely aligned AI.
- The current lack of progress, inadequate allocation of resources, and resistance to genuine alignment efforts pose significant challenges.
- The future of AI development is uncertain, and caution should be exercised due to factors such as lack of commitment and the difficulty of the alignment problem.
- Using fiction as a means of conveying complex ideas can enhance understanding, but it should not replace non-fiction entirely.
Deep dives
Indeterminate future of AI training runs
The guest discusses the unlikelihood of governments adopting a treaty that restricts AI and the motive behind calling for a moratorium on further AI training runs.
Concerns about incremental takeoff
The guest expresses uncertainty about the potential for incremental takeoff, considering the progress of large language models like GPT-4 and the unpredictable nature of AI development.
Predicting human thought processes
The guest explains that GPT-based models have the capacity to predict human thought processes and planning, indicating the presence of planning capabilities within the system.
The gradual improvements of AI models have not changed the basic picture
Despite huge advancements in the last 10-20 years, including the deep learning revolution and the success of language models, the basic picture of the risks and challenges of AI has not changed. The emergence of more powerful models, such as GPT-4, has shown qualitative jumps in capabilities rather than gradual improvements. The scaling laws still apply, but the endpoint is far smarter than the scaling laws would imply.
The urgency to address AI alignment
There is a need to address AI alignment urgently because waiting for gradual improvements or diverse approaches to naturally solve the problem is not enough. Incremental progress, such as refining human intelligence and conducting interpretability research, has not provided a promising solution. It is essential to take a proactive and comprehensive approach to align AI systems with human values.
The difficulty in predicting timelines and the need to take action
Predicting timelines for AI development and alignment is challenging, and there is uncertainty in the outcomes. However, it is crucial to take action and raise awareness of the risks involved. While there may be different probabilities assigned to the impact of AI, the urgency lies in not remaining silent and allowing society to walk into potential dangers. Communicating the risks and engaging in proactive measures is key to mitigating the potential harm.
Alignment and augmentation as potential solutions
One potential solution discussed is training AI systems to help augment humans and assist in the AI alignment process. By training AI systems to distinguish between nice and valid arguments, and filtering training data to focus on the positive aspects of human behavior, it may be possible to create a genuinely aligned AI system. However, the current lack of progress and the absence of commitment to this approach by those currently working in the field pose significant challenges.
Technical feasibility and challenges
While it may be technically feasible to enhance humans and ensure alignment with AI systems, the current trajectory of research and development falls far short of what is required to achieve these goals. The lack of progress, inadequate allocation of resources, and resistance to genuine alignment efforts all contribute to the challenge of creating an AI system that is aligned and beneficial.
Uncertain nature of the future
The future is highly uncertain and difficult to predict. While there may be potential paths towards alignment and augmentation, the likelihood of these paths being successfully pursued is uncertain. Factors such as lack of commitment, the difficulty of the alignment problem, and the challenges in transforming the current trajectory of AI development all contribute to this uncertainty. It is important to approach the future with caution and openness to different possibilities.
The Importance of General Intelligence
This podcast episode discusses the concept of general intelligence and its significance. The speaker emphasizes that rationality and intelligence are not just personal choices or ideologies but rather a cognitive process that can lead to winning in various aspects of life. They explain that rationality is a systematized approach to decision-making and problem-solving that aims at achieving desired outcomes. While there is no guarantee of success, adopting rationality as a framework can increase the likelihood of making better choices. The episode highlights the need to differentiate between good and bad work in order to contribute effectively to the field and address complex problems.
The Challenges of Making Predictions about AI
The podcast delves into the difficulties of making accurate predictions about the future of artificial intelligence. The speaker acknowledges that while there are theories and heuristics to guide our understanding, the nature of intelligence and its implications are highly complex. They discuss the limitations of current decision theories and caution against relying solely on rationality as a panacea for success. They note that adopting Bayesian principles and contemplating probability theory can contribute to better decision-making, but it does not necessarily guarantee desired outcomes. The speaker emphasizes the need for continuous questioning, skepticism, and vigilance in navigating the uncertainties surrounding AI development.
The Role of Fiction in Conveying Ideas
The podcast explores the value of using fiction as a means of explaining concepts and experiences. The speaker explains that fiction can provide a more engaging and enjoyable way to convey complex ideas while also incorporating plot and characters. They express the opinion that some concepts are easier to understand through fiction, as it allows readers to experience those ideas in a narrative context. However, they note that fiction should not replace non-fiction entirely and emphasize the importance of clarity and coherence in conveying knowledge effectively.
For 4 hours, I tried to come up reasons for why AI might not kill us all, and Eliezer Yudkowsky explained why I was wrong.
We also discuss his call to halt AI, why LLMs make alignment harder, what it would take to save humanity, his millions of words of sci-fi, and much more.
If you want to get to the crux of the conversation, fast forward to 2:35:00 through 3:43:54. Here we go through and debate the main reasons I still think doom is unlikely.
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.
Timestamps
(0:00:00) - TIME article
(0:09:06) - Are humans aligned?
(0:37:35) - Large language models
(1:07:15) - Can AIs help with alignment?
(1:30:17) - Society’s response to AI
(1:44:42) - Predictions (or lack thereof)
(1:56:55) - Being Eliezer
(2:13:06) - Othogonality
(2:35:00) - Could alignment be easier than we think?
(3:02:15) - What will AIs want?
(3:43:54) - Writing fiction & whether rationality helps you win
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