The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza involves various factors, including the Axis of Resistance and threats from Iranian proxies in Iraq.
Hamas demonstrated a high level of sophistication in their attack, using drones, advanced weapons, and trained fighters.
Deep dives
The Complexity of the War
The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza is highly intricate and involves various factors. Hamas launched a well-planned surprise attack, indicating sophisticated planning and preparation. The war is not limited to Gaza alone but involves the Axis of Resistance, including Iran and Hezbollah. The Iranian proxies in Iraq have also made threats against US forces in the region. The US is providing support to Israel while trying to deter an escalation and protect its own forces. The US has deployed aircraft carriers, squadrons, and Marines to the region. There is a possibility of Hezbollah entering the war, which may further complicate the situation.
Objective of Israel
The objective of Israel, as stated by Prime Minister Netanyahu, is to destroy Hamas, rendering them incapable of fighting until they are fully reconstituted. This involves clearing the strip, eliminating Hamas fighters, and destroying their weapons caches, supply depots, and headquarters. Victory for Israel means ripping out Hamas entirely and eliminating their ability to continue the fight.
Sophistication of Hamas
Hamas demonstrated a high level of sophistication in their attack, despite the perception of being a ragtag group. The attack was meticulously planned and involved studying Israeli defenses and patterns. They were able to execute a surprise attack using drones, sophisticated weapons systems, and highly trained fighters. Hamas has proven to be a dangerous adversary with access to advanced technologies and resources.
US Involvement and Challenges
The US is providing material and diplomatic support to Israel while attempting to deter an escalation. The movement of US carriers to the region surprised Iranian and Hezbollah forces, but has not deterred their attacks on US bases. The US has positioned forces to defend against potential Hezbollah attacks and is prepared to respond if Hezbollah enters the war. Mutual deterrence attempts are proving to be challenging, and the likelihood of an expanded conflict involving Iran's allies and attacks on US forces is high.
Next week we will release the new book by Saul Singer and me: "The Genius of Israel: The Surprising Resilience of a Divided Nation in a Turbulent World", which you can order now at:
www.amazon.com/Genius-Israel-Small-Nation-Teach/dp/1982115769/ref=sr_1_1?crid=3LKV3ZLWLBOL1&keywords=dan+senor&qid=1694402205&sprefix=dan+senor%2Caps%2C87&sr=8-1
OR
www.barnesandnoble.com/w/the-genius-of-israel-dan-senor/1143499668
The speech that I reference in today's episode -- in which I discuss the resilience of Israelis in this moment -- can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WygtNbwf-tk
By the time you listen to this episode, we may be witnessing escalation on Israel’s Northern border. Certainly there’s a highly anticipated address by Hassan Nasrallah, the head of Hezbollah. This will be his first major address since the October 7 War began. If there is major escalation, we will be dropping an emergency episode with Dr. Matthew Levitt, an expert on Hezbollah who was on this podcast last week.
Today’s guest is Dr. Fred Kagan, an expert in understanding war theaters – as he tries to help us understand the various battlefields in which Israel is currently fighting or might be fighting in the future. Fred is a former professor of military history at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point. He spent meaningful time in the Middle East informally advising US military commanders.
You can find more of Fred’s work at:
The Critical Threats Project – https://www.criticalthreats.org/
Institute for the Study of War – https://understandingwar.org/
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