Biden's Rough "Big Boy" Night, Elites' Whisper Campaign, and Trump's Polling Advantage, with Michael Knowles and Spencer Kimball | Ep. 836
Jul 12, 2024
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Michael Knowles and Spencer Kimball discuss Biden's press conference, elite's whisper campaign, Trump's polling advantage, and potential impact on upcoming elections. They analyze Biden's cognitive decline, media scrutiny, Democratic party's concerns, and challenges faced by the Democrats. The podcast explores polling dynamics, election scenarios, third-party candidates' influence, and strategies for success in pivotal swing states.
Trump's polling advantage post-debate reflects improvement in swing states like Arizona and Michigan.
Biden's decline in poll numbers, especially in Arizona and Georgia, poses challenges for the campaign.
Security of key states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin crucial for Biden to counter potential losses in Arizona and Georgia.
Deep dives
Trump gaining ground in battleground states and nationally post-debate
Trump's numbers have improved post-debate, with him either gaining ground or remaining steady in swing states like Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Georgia. Biden's decline in the poll numbers is a cause for concern, especially in states like Arizona and Georgia, where trends have been favoring Trump.
Biden's struggle in battleground states like Nevada and Georgia
The debate has impacted Biden's standing in Nevada, where Trump's lead has increased from three to six points, and in Pennsylvania, where Trump is ahead by five points. Georgia shows Trump leading by five points post-debate, implying a challenge for Biden to rally support in these critical states.
Signs of Trump's advantage expanding nationally and in swing states
Recent polls indicate Trump's lead has expanded nationally and in critical swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Trump's gaining momentum, with the potential to secure an electoral win by targeting states showing favorable trends for him.
Potential shift in electoral outcome favoring Trump
If Trump manages to secure Arizona and Georgia as projected in recent polls, Biden would need to secure the blue wall states like Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania to counter Trump's momentum and secure an electoral win. The scenario hinges on the outcome of critical battleground states in the upcoming months.
Biden's Must-Win States and Independent Voters
Biden must secure key states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin to counter potential losses in Georgia and Arizona. Biden is facing challenges with independent voters this election compared to the last, emphasizing the need to regain their support and maintain the Obama coalition. Younger voters, traditionally favoring Democrats, are showing less enthusiasm, posing a recruitment challenge for the Democratic Party.
GOP Nominee's Lead and Polling Accuracy
The GOP nominee leading post-July 4th for the first time in 24 years indicates a significant shift in the political landscape. Polling accuracy and bias are subjects of debate, with a historical tendency for polls to skew left. Biden's reliance on polls is met with skepticism due to past polling surprises, emphasizing the need to consider trends and potential margins of error in the data analysis.
Megyn Kelly is joined by Michael Knowles, host of The Daily Wire's "Michael Knowles Show,” to talk about Biden’s “big boy” press conference last night, his confusion about Zelensky and Putin and Trump and Harris, how the elites and establishment want him out but he won't listen, why Biden won't leave the race, how the press conference wasn't bad enough to force him to leave, what the establishment media is focused on now, prominent left-wing elites leaking to the media instead of publicly making a statement urging Biden to step aside, Biden's odd habit of whispering suddenly, and more. Then Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, joins to discuss the impact the debate had on the polling in certain states like Georgia and Arizona, the dire polling averages for the Biden campaign right now, why Biden's depressed support in New York and California matter, what states Biden and Trump need to prioritize, if a new Democratic candidate replacing Biden could beat Trump, the importance of name recognition in polling, and more.