LessWrong (Curated & Popular) “What Indicators Should We Watch to Disambiguate AGI Timelines?” by snewman
Jan 9, 2025
The podcast dives into the murky waters of AGI timelines, capturing the contrasting theories on whether we're on the brink of a technological revolution or simply beginning a journey. It dissects the slow versus fast scenarios of AGI development, highlighting the hurdles current AI faces. The discussion also explores crucial indicators to watch for signs of a rapidly approaching AGI. With ongoing advancements, the narrative raises both excitement and skepticism about what lies ahead in the world of artificial intelligence.
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Slow Scenario Overview
- In the slow scenario, AI progress slows down, and scaling becomes difficult due to data and cost limitations.
- While AI sees some adoption, its overall impact by 2035 is limited, and no major disruptions occur.
Fast Scenario Overview
- The fast scenario assumes the challenges in the slow scenario are overcome, with synthetic data and AI tools driving rapid progress.
- Compute becomes the key resource, leading to recursive self-improvement and accelerated AI development.
Requirements for Fast AGI
- Even in the fast scenario, AGI is unlikely before 2028 unless several conditions are met, including breakthroughs in key areas.
- These areas include continuous learning, handling messy real-world tasks, and long-horizon planning.
