The Briefing Room discusses the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. Guests analyze the evidence surrounding the Gaza hospital blast and the possibility of an Israeli ground offensive. They also explore Joe Biden's visit to Israel, Hezbollah's role in Iran's strategy, and the potential for achieving peace in the conflict. The need for international involvement and ensuring a realistic life for the people of Gaza after the war are also discussed.
Possible reasons for the delay in an Israeli ground offensive in Gaza include Joe Biden's visit, the hope for civilian evacuation or aid delivery, concerns over the northern front and Hezbollah, and the need for a clear plan and understanding of the invasion's scope.
The challenges of attributing responsibility for the Gaza hospital blast highlight the importance of open-source intelligence and caution against rushing to judgment based on precarious and fragmentary evidence.
Deep dives
Current situation: Ground invasion delay and uncertainty
The podcast episode discusses the delay in an Israeli ground offensive in Gaza and the uncertainty surrounding it. While there has been talk of an Israeli ground invasion for several days, it has yet to happen. Possible reasons for the delay include Joe Biden's visit to Israel, the hope that the Rafa crossing in Gaza would open up for civilian evacuation or aid delivery, concerns over the northern front and Hezbollah, and the need for a clear plan and understanding of the invasion's scope. Despite the delay, an invasion is expected to occur in the future, as Israel's political reputation for retribution and deterrence is at stake.
Investigating the Gaza hospital blast and challenges of attribution
The podcast examines the challenges of attributing responsibility for the Gaza hospital blast. The evidence gathered includes images from the site, voice intercepts of militants discussing rocket launches, and American satellite data. While the images don't indicate a typical Israeli airstrike, they align with the Israeli claim that it was a malfunctioning Hamas rocket. However, analysis based on publicly available evidence is limited and often incomplete. The episode highlights the importance of open-source intelligence and cautions against rushing to judgment based on precarious and fragmentary evidence.
Possible scenarios and challenges for Israeli objectives
The podcast explores different scenarios and challenges related to Israeli objectives in Gaza. The Israeli aim is to destroy Hamas, but achieving this goal in a densely populated urban territory with extensive tunnel networks poses significant difficulties. The operation could take months or even years to complete. However, there are concerns about political confusion and a lack of a clear plan in the Israeli leadership. The likelihood of a ground invasion is high, with a potential withdrawal after weeks or longer. The scenario discussed suggests a new normal of sporadic airstrikes and ground incursions in the future.
Israel and Hamas are at war and there are no signs of a quick resolution. But what would a resolution actually look like and who's actually going to try and negotiate one?
David Aaronovitch talks to:
Shashank Joshi, Defence editor at The Economist
Steven Erlanger, Chief Diplomatic correspondent in Europe for The New York Times
Professor Lina Khatib, Director of the Middle East Institute at SOAS University of London
Production: Ben Carter, Sally Abrahams and Kirsteen Knight
Production co-ordinator: Sophie Hill and Jacqui Johnson
Sound: Neil Churchill
Editor: Richard Vadon
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