The Compound and Friends What Did the Fed Actually Say?
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Oct 31, 2025 
In this engaging discussion, Stephanie Roth, Chief Economist at Wolfe Research, sheds light on AI-driven capital expenditures and their impact on GDP growth. She addresses the uncertainty of AI winners and losers and how productivity boosts are expected over time. Roth also delves into current Fed policies, emphasizing that a December rate cut is uncertain amidst steady economic conditions. Additionally, she explores how household debt is trending down and the evolving labor market dynamics as AI reshapes job structures.
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AI-Driven Tech Spending Is Durable
- Tech capex and AI spending are strong and likely to continue driving growth for years.
- Stephanie Roth believes companies will keep spending until winners and losers emerge.
Top-Line Strength Masks Rising CapEx Needs
- Big tech top-lines remain healthy with Microsoft, Google, and Meta posting strong revenue growth.
- Companies warned CapEx will accelerate notably in 2025 to meet compute needs.
CapEx Explains A Significant Slice Of Growth
- AI-related CapEx explains a material share of recent GDP growth, roughly a quarter of it so far.
- The macro shift will hand off from heavy construction to productivity gains as firms integrate AI.