ACCESS Robinhood’s Vlad Tenev on predicting the future
9 snips
Nov 13, 2025 
Vlad Tenev, CEO of Robinhood, shares insights into the innovative world of prediction markets and their role as 'truth machines' providing accurate forecasts. He discusses the balance between financial products and sports betting, emphasizing separate teams focused on a super-app vision. Tenev also explores the potential of tokenized stocks to enhance access and liquidity in financial markets. Additionally, he reflects on the importance of resisting complacency and the ethical considerations in customer acquisition, aiming for a healthier digital experience.
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Markets As Truth Machines
- Prediction markets serve as a truth-discovery mechanism by aggregating people with real money at stake.
- They often produce more accurate forecasts than polls or opinions because traders reveal conviction through stakes.
Money Improves Forecast Accuracy
- Prediction markets show high empirical accuracy, sometimes predicting outcomes a month out.
- Money-backed trades filter flippant opinions and surface informed beliefs.
Operate Within Regulated Frameworks
- Use regulated financial firms to operate prediction markets because they already have surveillance and transaction-monitoring infrastructure.
- Leverage federal oversight to address integrity concerns rather than leaving markets unregulated.
