

Japan's Concern Over China Rare Earth Curbs, Credit Woes Hit Wall Street
Oct 17, 2025
Shuntaro Takeuchi, a portfolio manager at Matthews Asia, discusses Japan's response to China's rare earth export controls and the implications for G-7 unity. He also explores the Japanese equity market's resilience amidst global tensions and how potential coalition talks could reshape Japan's political landscape. Jeff Palma from Cohen & Steers highlights recent credit quality concerns among regional banks and the Fed's internal debates on interest rate cuts, while addressing the delicate balance of global economic resilience.
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Globalization Is Reversing
- Globalization is slowing or reversing, making manufacturing capex less efficient and more localized.
- Shuntaro Takeuchi thinks Japanese manufacturers will benefit from increased, more efficient capex flows.
Prepare For A Small BOJ Rate Hike
- Expect the BOJ to raise rates by 25 basis points late this year or early next as wages improve.
- Then likely pause at that higher level while watching real wage growth before further tightening.
Japan Equities Have Structural Upside
- Japan equities look attractive mid-to-long term because nominal GDP and earnings revisions are improving.
- Unwinding cross-shareholdings and better capital allocation may pressure returns higher and lift valuations.