The Bitcoin Layer Inside Bitcoin’s Trend Shift: Bear Zone, Liquidations, & Key Support
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Nov 26, 2025 Johan Bergman, an on-chain markets analyst specializing in Bitcoin, joins the discussion to analyze Bitcoin's recent trend shift into bear territory. They explore critical metrics like the short term holder cost basis and the true market mean. Johan breaks down the October liquidation events, the significant buyer strength seen at $80k, and what indicators might confirm a reversal. He also shares insights on trading dynamics influenced by open interest, whale selling trends, and the evolving relevance of the four-year cycle as institutional interests grow.
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Three-Day Chart Clarifies Trend vs Valuation
- Johan prefers the three-day chart to balance trend clarity and avoid daily noise while still catching rallies quickly.
- He separates trend metrics (3-day RSI vs its MA) from valuation metrics (true market mean and ST holder MVRV) for clearer signals.
True Market Mean Reframes Valuation
- Johan uses the true market mean (discounting dormant/lost coins) as a valuation anchor and the Aviv ratio mean as a bull/bear divider.
- The true market mean sits well above realized price, reflecting active investors' cost basis (~$81k in his example).
Require RSI And Mean Reclaim For Reversal
- Watch for a wick-buy (WIC) recovery and reclaiming the value area low as evidence of buying strength.
- Require 3-day RSI above its moving average and price above the Aviv ratio mean before calling a structural reversal.