Hard Landing for the US Economy, Mild Recession to Spare Emerging Markets: Ayesha Tariq

This podcast episode was recorded on Aug. 29 with a 'highlight' clip of the most actionable insights released to premium subscribers that same day. Premium subscribers then received the full episode -- without ads or interruptions -- the following day, on Aug. 30. To find out more about premium subscriptions, visit our Substack.

Ayesha Tariq, co-founder of MacroVisor, rejoins the podcast to discuss why she is expecting a hard landing for the US economy along with other contrarian views she has about the Federal Reserve and global financial markets.

Content Highlights

• The 'soft landing' scenario has effectively become the base case. Why that's wrong (1:32);
• Unlike many (most?) recessions, this one will not be preceded by a Fed-induced credit event. For this reason, it will be milder (4:44);
• The Federal Reserve is likely to hike at its next meeting on Sept. 20. That will be its last hike this cycle (8:53);
• The US downturn will not necessarily lead to a global recession (12:58);
• The outlook for commodities, specifically copper, is bullish despite the bearish economic outlook (18:48);
• Rate hikes might be off the table, but quantitative tightening could still be incoming in 2024 (23:45);
• New segment: Listener questions. Whoever's questions are read wins a free Contrarian mug. First up: what to make of Nvidia and AI (26:36);
• Next listener question: what to look for in bank earnings? (31:42);
• One area of the stock market where the guest is particularly bullish (36:35).