Empire of Illusion: Frank Dikötter on Why China Isn’t a Superpower
Apr 1, 2025
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Frank Dikötter, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and expert on Chinese history, challenges the narrative of China as a superpower. He argues that the image of strength is a façade, masking profound fragility beneath repression and propaganda. Dikötter examines the disparity between urban and rural development, the flawed economic statistics, and the CCP's paranoia that drives its decisions. He also draws unsettling parallels between China and the Soviet Union, emphasizing that real power rests with the populace reclaiming autonomy.
Dikötter argues that China's image as a superpower is misleading, revealing a fragile state maintained by repression and propaganda.
Despite impressive urban developments, a vast divide between rural poverty and urban prosperity undermines the narrative of widespread economic success.
The Communist Party's fear-driven governance stifles genuine reforms and public welfare, prioritizing power retention over the needs of its citizens.
Deep dives
China's Economic Growth and Misconceptions
China has seen significant economic changes over the past few decades, lifting millions out of poverty, but the narrative surrounding this transformation is often misleading. Many believe that economic growth will naturally lead to democratic reforms, akin to what happened in South Korea and Taiwan, but this assumption has not materialized in China. The speaker argues that the essence of Chinese communism persists, maintaining control rather than facilitating genuine progress. A key point is that the country's statistics are often unreliable, casting doubt on the perceived success and stability of China's economic model.
Urban vs. Rural Divide
The transformation of cities like Tianjin shows remarkable development, but this is contrasted by the continued poverty in the rural areas of China. Despite urban progress, the majority of the population remains in rural settings, facing a stark disparity in resources and living standards. The government has prioritized creating an image of modernity in urban centers while neglecting the welfare of rural citizens, leading to a significant portion of the population being marginalized. This divide resembles an apartheid system, where rural individuals face inferior status and limited access to state resources.
The Role of the Communist Party
The Communist Party has established a monopoly on power, which impacts both economic policy and social dynamics in China. The speaker emphasizes the party's focus on reinforcing socialism while projecting an image of economic growth. Although some economic freedom has been granted, it primarily serves to maintain the party's core control over the population and economy. Ultimately, scholars suggest that any economic success is largely due to the party getting out of the way long enough for citizens to take initiative, rather than direct interventions leading to positive outcomes.
The Cultural Revolution and Its Legacy
Historical events like the Cultural Revolution have left a lasting impact on the Chinese Communist Party's approach to governance, fostering a deep-seated fear of public dissent within the ranks. Following the tumultuous years of Mao's leadership, the party has maintained its authority through repressive tactics, notably during the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989. This event exemplified the leadership's reluctance to yield power in favor of addressing public grievances, demonstrating an unwavering commitment to the party's dominance. The result is a regime that prioritizes its survival over genuine reforms or public welfare, driven by paranoia and a fear of insurrection.
Future of China's Global Position
As China continues to grow militarily and economically, its global strategies indicate a willingness to assert dominance, particularly concerning Taiwan. However, the party's internal fears about retention of power and popular dissent raise questions about its long-term stability. Economic growth has slowed, raising concerns about potential vulnerability in the face of international relations, especially with the U.S. and its allies. Ultimately, the effectiveness of China's expansive ambitions may hinge on the regime's ability to maintain control amid its growing economic challenges and societal pressures.
Frank Dikötter is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution who has recently returned to the United States after living in Hong Kong since 2006. In this provocative conversation, Dikötter challenges the prevailing narrative about China’s rise. Drawing from his latest book, China After Mao: The Rise of a Superpower, Dikötter argues that the Chinese Communist Party has masterfully projected the image of a powerful, modern, and economically dominant nation—but says that image is largely a façade.
Dikötter contends that far from being a true superpower, China remains fundamentally fragile: an empire held together by repression, propaganda, and paranoia. Despite gleaming cities and impressive-seeming economic statistics often cited by the West, he asserts that much of China’s so-called growth has been built on the backs of an impoverished population, often without its consent or benefit. He further explains how inflated numbers, hollow institutions, and internal contradictions undermine China’s long-term strength. In his view, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) hasn’t lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty—it has merely stepped aside as ordinary people began reclaiming their autonomy after decades of devastation under Mao.
Dikötter delves into how the CCP’s fear—of its own citizens, of capitalism, of peaceful evolution—has driven decisions for decades. Dikötter also draws parallels with the Soviet Union and suggests that, like the USSR’s, China’s power is brittle beneath the surface. Xi Jinping, he argues, is not a break from tradition but a continuation of the Party’s long-standing obsession with control.
This conversation calls into question not only China’s global ambitions but also how the West has consistently misread the CCP’s intentions and capabilities. Ultimately, Dikötter leaves us with a stark question: Are we overestimating China’s strength—and underestimating its fear?
Recorded on March 27, 2025.
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