The Fall of Assad & What it Means for The Mid East (w/ Alastair Crooke) | The Chris Hedges Report
Dec 10, 2024
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Alastair Crooke, a former British diplomat and Middle East expert, discusses the dramatic fall of Bashar al-Assad and its broad implications. He examines the role of rebel groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the strategic ambitions of Turkey and Israel in the region. The conversation delves into Syria's ongoing civil war and the dire humanitarian crisis it has caused. Crooke also critiques U.S.-Iran tensions, illustrating how geopolitical maneuvering continues to shape the Middle East's future amidst ongoing conflicts.
The fall of Assad's regime drastically alters the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, creating new power dynamics with Turkey and Israel's involvement.
The rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, backed by Turkey, poses significant risks for Syria's minority groups, particularly concerning their rights and protections.
Syria's ongoing economic devastation, exacerbated by civil war and sanctions, leaves citizens in dire straits, complicating any attempts at stabilization.
Deep dives
Impact of Assad's Fall on Middle Eastern Dynamics
The fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad marks the end of a 53-year dynasty and significantly alters the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. This event opens up the possibility for new power dynamics, especially concerning the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which is now supported by Turkey. Turkey's primary concern lies in curtailing Kurdish ambitions for independence in northern Syria, where a Kurdish autonomous enclave has already developed. Meanwhile, Israel views the collapse of Assad's regime as an opportunity to impede Iranian support for Hezbollah, further complicating the regional chessboard.
Role of Turkey and Israel in Assad's Overthrow
Turkey has played a crucial role in the conflict, arming and backing HTS to achieve its strategic objectives while simultaneously aligning with U.S. interests to eliminate Assad. The intricate relationship between Turkey, the U.S., and various Syrian militia groups has created a complicated battleground, with funding and training coming from multiple sources. Israel has actively supported efforts to destabilize the Assad regime, viewing it as vital to its national security interests, especially as it relates to managing Hezbollah's activities. This collaborative effort among these nations reveals a calculated approach to reshape the regional power balance.
Consequences of Geopolitical Changes for Minority Groups
The power vacuum created by Assad's ousting has raised concerns about the fate of Syria's minority groups, particularly the Alawites, Druze, and Christians. With HTS in control, there is a looming risk of persecution against those who were previously aligned with Assad's regime, further deepening sectarian divides. The potential for an Islamic state raises fears regarding the rights and protections of these communities, which have historically depended on Assad's secular government for safeguarding. The future stability of these groups will be contingent upon how HTS and its allies choose to govern and incorporate or marginalize them.
The Diminished State of the Syrian Economy
The devastation wrought by a prolonged civil war and severe sanctions has left Syria's economy in tatters, significantly impacting the living conditions of its citizens. Economic infrastructure has crumbled, with essential resources like electricity and food becoming scarce and often inaccessible to the general population. The loss of oil revenues and agricultural production has exacerbated the situation, pushing many Syrians into hopelessness and poverty. Without international aid or recovery strategies, the economic degradation presents a formidable challenge for any new regime attempting to establish legitimacy and stability.
Potential for Escalating Conflict in the Region
The scenarios unfolding in Syria suggest a high potential for regional conflict, raising alarms for neighboring countries such as Iraq and Jordan. The dynamic between armed groups like the Kurdish militia and the Turkish forces indicates that battles could spill over into other territories, complicating relationships among regional powers. Furthermore, with rising tensions in Lebanon and the ongoing strife in Gaza, the fabric of stability across the region is increasingly precarious. As the U.S. and Israel remain involved in airstrikes and operations in Syria, this enhances the risk of broader conflict and undermines prospects for peace.
The fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, ending a 55-year dynasty begun by his father, dramatically shifts the pieces on the chessboard of the Middle East. The rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led by Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, is armed and backed by Turkey and was once allied with Al Qaeda. It is sanctioned as a terrorist group. Turkey’s primary goal is to prevent an independent Kurdish state in northern Syria where Kurds have formed an autonomous enclave. But it may not only be Turkey that is behind the overthrow of Assad. It may also be Israel. Israel has long sought to topple the Syrian regime which is the transit point for weapons and aid sent from Iran to the Lebanese militia group Hezbollah. The Syrian regime was backed by Russia and Iran, indeed Russian warplanes routinely bombed Syrian rebel targets. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has gloated about the ousting of Assad calling it an "historic day" and said it was a direct result of Israel's actions against Hezbollah and Iran. But at the same time, Israel will soon have an Islamic state on its border.
Syria, a country of 23 million, is geopolitically important. It links Iraq’s oil to the Mediterranean, the Shia of Iraq and Iran to Lebanon, and Turkey, a NATO ally, to Jordan’s deserts.
Assad’s decision to brutally crush a pro-democracy movement triggered a 14-year-long civil war in 2011 that led to 500,000 people being killed and more than 14 million displaced.
Now What? Will Hayat Tahrir al-Sham seek to renew relations with Iran? Will it impose an Islamic state, given its jihadist roots? Will Syria’s many minority groups, Alawite, Druze, Circassian, Armenian, Chechen, Assyrian, Christian and Turkoman, be persecuted, especially the Alawites, a heterodox offshoot of Shiite Islam comprising around 10 percent of the population, which Assad and the ruling elites were members of? How will it affect the U.S.-backed and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, which holds the Syrian oil-rich territory in north and east Syria? Why are the U.S. and Israel bombing targets in Syria following the ouster of Assad? Will the new regime be able to convince the U.S. and Europe to lift sanctions and return the occupied oil fields? What does this portend for the wider Middle East, especially in Lebanon and the Israeli occupied territories?
Joining Chris Hedges to discuss the overthrow of the Assad regime and its ramifications is former British diplomat Alastair Crooke. He served for many years in the Middle East working as a security advisor to the EU special envoy to the Middle East, as well as helping lead efforts to set up negotiations and truces between Hamas, Islamic Jihad and other Palestinian resistant groups with Israel. He was instrumental in establishing the 2002 ceasefire between Hamas and Israel. He is also the author of Resistance: The Essence of the Islamist Revolution, which analyzes the ascendancy of Islamic movements in the Middle East.
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