The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series Ukraine Hammers Russian Oil Infrastructure || Peter Zeihan
Sep 16, 2025
Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure are intensifying, significantly impacting Russia's oil refining capability. This surge has triggered alarming fuel shortages in Russia. The discussion dives into the geopolitical shifts following the Biden administration's exit, emphasizing how improved military capabilities for Ukraine could weaken Russian crude exports. The ripple effects of these developments may challenge Russia's economy and reshape the energy landscape in Eastern Europe.
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Russian Refining Capacity Hit Hard
- Ukraine has increased strikes on Russian energy infrastructure and knocked 15–20% of Russia's oil processing offline.
- The attacks are producing localized gasoline shortages across Russia, including in the capital and frontline provinces.
Three Factors Enabled The Escalation
- Three factors changed: US politics, Europe's decoupling, and better Ukrainian weapons and tactics.
- Those shifts removed restraints and enabled a sharper Ukrainian campaign against Russian energy infrastructure.
US Political Constraints Removed
- Under the prior U.S. administration, attacks on Russian energy were discouraged to avoid global price backlash.
- With that political constraint removed, Ukraine feels freer to strike energy targets.