Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight and a prominent voice in data analysis and election forecasting, joins to discuss the cultural attitudes towards risk in American politics. They explore the erosion of trust in institutions and polarization driven by figures like Peter Thiel and Elon Musk. Silver sheds light on what people misunderstand about election forecasting and the significance of generational divides in voting. With a keen eye on 2024, he warns about misleading polls and potential public unrest over election outcomes.
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insights INSIGHT
Erosion of Trust
American politics are experiencing fragmentation and declining trust in institutions.
The decline is evident in polling data across various sectors, resembling a prisoner's dilemma.
insights INSIGHT
Information Doom Loop
The abundance of online information, segmented and personalized, fuels confirmation bias.
Tribalism and algorithms prioritizing engagement over truth exacerbate this fragmentation.
question_answer ANECDOTE
Polling and Confirmation Bias
Nate Silver's election polling data reveals people's discomfort with information contradicting their views.
He cites a personal anecdote of a spat with Bette Midler over polling data.
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In 'On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything', Nate Silver explores the world of 'the River', a community of risk-takers including poker players, hedge fund managers, crypto enthusiasts, and venture capitalists. Silver delves into the mindset and strategies of these individuals, who navigate uncertainty and complexity with a high tolerance for risk and an affinity for numbers. The book takes readers behind the scenes of casinos, venture capital firms, and the inner workings of the effective altruism movement, highlighting the impact of these risk-takers on technology and the global economy. Silver also critiques the flaws in the thinking of these 'Riverians' and discusses the broader implications of risk-taking in modern society[3][4][5].
The Contrarian
Peter Thiel and Silicon Valley's Pursuit of Power
Max Chafkin
In 'The Contrarian,' Max Chafkin provides a meticulous biography of Peter Thiel, one of Silicon Valley's most influential and controversial figures. The book explores Thiel's singular life and worldview, from his conservative roots at Stanford to his founding of PayPal and Palantir, and his early investments in Facebook and SpaceX. Chafkin also delves into Thiel's political activities, including his support for Donald Trump and his role in the lawsuit that destroyed the blog Gawker. The biography is both a portrait of Thiel and an examination of the broader tech industry, highlighting its explosive growth, power, and the controversies surrounding it.
Sam Harris speaks with Nate Silver about cultural attitudes toward risk and the state of American politics. They discuss the erosion of trust in liberal institutions, polling and political narratives, different camps of cultural elites, the influence of Silicon Valley, Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, Sam Bankman-Fried and the fall of FTX, Gell-Mann amnesia, Christopher Rufo, why Kamala Harris can’t admit to having changed her views, a problem with strict utilitarianism, AI and existential risk, what people misunderstand about election forecasting, which news events have affected the 2024 race, how current polls might be misleading, public vs. private polling, undecided and marginal voters, Gen Z, the gender divide, the likelihood that Trump won’t accept the election results if he loses, election integrity in the swing states, the chance of a landslide, the prospect of public unrest, and other topics.
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