Australian Delegation Witnesses China Speed, China Scale - Tim Buckley - Ep71

Tim Buckley joined the Australian Trade and Investment Commission (Austrade) and Renewable Energy Council Asia-Pacific (RECAP) delegation to China.

Before joining the delegation, Tim travelled across China by train — a very fast trip with a friend from Hong Kong, via Chongqing. Nothing beats travelling 12 hours at 300kph across the length of this amazing country to orient himself and see some of the landscape. Chongqing is the largest city in China (and the world), with a population of some 34 million people. Simply incredible and beautiful. Walking the streets of Beijing, Tim played spot-the-ICE-vehicle — green EV number plates abound!

Tim joined the delegation for the Fourth China International Supply Chain Expo (CISCE) in Beijing. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng spoke at the opening ceremony, addressing the importance for China of global supply chain stability and security for mutual benefit and win-win cooperation, even as other nations create geopolitical challenges.

Australia was featured as the country guest of honour. Great to have John Grimes (Renewable Energy Council Asia-Pacific, RECAP) and Dominic Trindade (Australia Consul-General, Australian Trade and Investment Commission, Austrade) co-hosting, with Don Farrell, Trade Minister. Tim and the delegation were there to see "China Speed, China Scale" first hand — and even sat in an autonomous flying EV taxi! Brilliant to meet with State Grid Corporation of China's CEPRI (China Electric Power Research Institute) RERC team to discuss energy system transformation trends in China, and how they match and differ from Australia. Brilliant to hear China plans to expand variable renewable energy (VRE) capacity from 1.84TW as of December 2025 to ~3.0TW installed capacity by 2030. CEPRI estimates China's solar potential at 45.6TW, while onshore wind is estimated at a more modest 3.4TW (plus 0.5TW of lower-speed wind), offshore wind at 0.4TW in deep sea (out to 50km offshore), and another 0.36TW of near-shore wind (at 100 metre height). By 2030, China's 3.0TW VRE capacity will be just 6% of this 50TW maximum. CEPRI acknowledges this theoretical maximum is being progressively raised — the higher the tower, the faster the average wind speed, and generation expands somewhat exponentially. By end of 2025, China had 46 HVDC grid transmission lines operational — that's 46 of the world's roughly 50 largest lines. Total world leadership, clearly evident, and very impressive. The Austrade RECAP delegation visited XCMG Group's factory in Xuzhou, China. XCMG is the number one OEM in mining equipment in China (with a 2025 share of 33% in domestic mining excavators) and third globally. XCMG's 2025 revenue reached Rmb90bn, up 897% since 2019, with 2025 net profit of Rmb4.9bn. XCMG's R&D investment in 2025 was Rmb10.2bn (A$2bn), and the company holds 12,715 patents, including 4,798 domestic and 366 international invention patents. XCMG's 15th Five-Year Plan for its mining equipment strategy targets trebling mining machinery sales to US$6bn a year by 2030, lifting international sales share to 60% (from 40% in 2025), with new energy vehicles rising to a 50% share. China going global: XCMG targets being number one globally in new energy mining equipment as soon as 2030. Tim has no doubt they will achieve this. XCMG started as a construction equipment OEM, expanding to create a separate mining sector vertical with a focus on new energy vehicles and autonomous operation. Adjacent to the mining OEM facility is the XCMG and BYD battery joint venture factory, which targets 100GWh a year capacity. Phase 1 (30GWh) is already in operation, built in just 12 months and commissioned in December 2023; phase 2 (70GWh) is in preparation. This factory produces the Blade battery pack, with a long life of 7,000 cycles.

XCMG manufactures the biggest truck in the world, with a 363-tonne payload at a cost of US$15m per unit. XCMG will deliver its first 240-tonne payload EV to Fortescue in early 2027, with the full US$1bn order due for commercial delivery commencing 2028. Tim believes it is time for Treasurer Jim Chalmers and Finance Minister Katy Gallagher to reform the $4.5bn annual Australian mining sector imported diesel fuel subsidy to BHP, Rio Tinto and others, turning this headwind to energy security into a tailwind for decarbonisation. In his view, PM Anthony Albanese and Industry Minister Tim Ayres should ignore MCA lobbyist threats — Australia's Future Made in Australia agenda needs to be powered by domestic clean energy, not expensive, high-emissions imported diesel. Brilliant to see XCMG Australia has doubled to 70 staff across two offices, with a third in Queensland planned. XCMG has already deployed 500 autonomous trucks globally, mostly hybrid or EV. June 2025 saw XCMG deploy 100 autonomous EV trucks at an Inner Mongolia open-cut coal mine, with a 90-tonne payload and a six-minute recharge time. (https://lnkd.in/gRKbaAJY) XCMG has a MoU for cooperation with Rio Tinto, and is already delivering mining EV equipment to Rio Tinto's partner in Simandou, Guinea. XCMG is working closely with Vale and has a new Brazilian factory with 1,600 workers. Tim shares a few details on the delegation's visit to the BYD truck factory and EV zero to 60 in less than two seconds in a Xiaomi. China delivers on "China Speed, China Scale" for this Australian delegation. Enjoy the podcast.