Aaron Sheehan-Dean from Louisiana State University discusses the potential consequences of a Union surrender in the Civil War, including the future of slavery and the impact on Brazil and Cuba. The podcast also explores the hypothetical scenario of a Confederate victory and its profound consequences, such as potential border crisis and long-term effects on the United States and the world.
In a counterfactual scenario where the Confederacy wins the Civil War, the United States would face potential splintering, with the West considering becoming its own nations and the South normalizing secession.
A Confederate victory would embolden and expand slavery in the South, potentially leading to the reopening of the Atlantic slave trade and influencing the fate of slavery in other parts of the world.
Deep dives
The Viability of Secession and Fracturing of the United States
In a counterfactual scenario where the Confederacy wins the Civil War, the United States would be left fractured and facing questions about the future of self-government. Secession would become normalized, leading to potential splintering within the nation. The West, including California and the western territories, could consider becoming their own nations. There would also be political reform in the North, energized by the loss of the war. Demographically, the great migration of African Americans to the North, which played a significant role in shaping American culture and arts, would not occur. The entire 20th century would be different, with repercussions for the civil rights movement, rock and roll, and many other aspects of American life.
The Fate of Slavery and International Implications
In a Confederate victory, slavery is emboldened and confirmed as the future economic model for labor in the South. Slavers in the Confederacy see the expansion of slavery as essential and would likely attempt to acquire more territory, including parts of the Caribbean, Mexico, or other parts of Latin America. The Confederate victory could also influence the fate of slavery in places like Cuba and Brazil, which remained slave powers. The Atlantic slave trade may potentially reopen, causing global ramifications. The reinterpretation of slavery as a viable institution would affect the course of international colonization efforts and undermine efforts against the slave trade.
The Transformation of the United States
The United States would undergo a profound transformation with a Confederate victory. Political reform and infrastructure development in the North would be halted, delaying or fundamentally changing the course of events like the Homestead Act and the construction of the Transcontinental Railroad. The future of the Republican Party is uncertain, and political discourse would be dramatically different without the slavery issue dominating the conversation. The United States' position and role on the international stage would be altered, impacting the development of democracy and democratic movements globally. The economic growth and modernization achieved in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, fueled by the end of slavery, may not have occurred as drastically or in the same trajectory.
The Long-term Consequences and Contested Issues
The consequences of a Confederate victory would be far-reaching and extend into the 20th century. Issues such as race, federalism, and cultural unity that were transformed by the Civil War would continue to shape American society and politics. The struggle for civil rights and racial equality would take on a different trajectory, influenced by the maintenance of slavery and the preservation of white supremacy in the South. The boundaries between Northern and Southern states would become more pronounced, creating regional tensions and potential fractures within the United States. The long reach of the Civil War would continue to impact the nation and its identity for generations to come.
What if the Civil War had ended differently, with the South seceding from the Union? Would slavery have continued? Would the southern states have continued as a whole? Would any other states have followed suit?
To explore this hypothetical history, Don spoke to Aaron Sheehan-Dean, Department Chair of history at Louisiana State University. Aaron specialises on the Civil War and reconstruction and is the author of 'The Calculus of Violence: How Americans Fought the Civil War', 'Reckoning with Rebellion: War and Sovereignty in the Nineteenth Century' and 'Why Confederates Fought'.
Produced by Sophie Gee. Edited by Siobhan Dale. Senior Producer was Charlotte Long.
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