7am A 'rathole of retaliation': Trump, Iran and what happens next
Jun 23, 2025
Shashank Joshi, author of The Permanent Crisis: Iran’s Nuclear Trajectory and defense editor at The Economist, dives into the recent U.S. military strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. He discusses the precarious situation of escalating tensions and Iran's potential responses, emphasizing the strategic significance of the Strait of Hormuz. The conversation highlights the risks of further conflict and the complexities behind Trump's decisions. Joshi also examines the implications for regional stability and the challenges of achieving peace amidst ongoing military operations.
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Uncertain Damage to Iran's Program
- The full impact of the US strike on Iran's nuclear program is uncertain due to unknown uranium stockpile locations.
- The attack likely damaged centrifuges but may not have destroyed Iran's nuclear capability entirely.
Predicting Iran's Retaliation Tactics
- Iran's retaliation will try to balance preserving honor with avoiding heavy US counterstrikes.
- Past retaliation, like after Soleimani's killing, was strong but measured to avoid escalation.
Deception Behind Trump's Timing
- Trump's public timeline about attacking Iran was likely a deception to prepare and secure US forces.
- Military logistics required time for planning the complex operation with B-2 bombers and refueling.
