The Middle East Is a Powder Keg. Washington Is Making It Worse
Dec 26, 2023
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This podcast discusses America's costly, security-first approach to the Middle East, the Biden administration's support for Israel, policy inertia, the risks of escalation and overstretch, and the increasing ineffectiveness of the use of force in U.S. foreign policy.
The US's security-first approach to the Middle East, characterized by a heavy reliance on military power and unconditional arms transfers to Israel, has proven costly and has kept the US heavily involved in the region despite previous rhetoric of pivoting away.
In order to reduce the burden on the United States and promote regional self-sufficiency, there is a need to invest in building the capabilities and resilience of regional partners through training for self-defense and collaboration among countries in addressing threats collectively.
Deep dives
US Response to Violence in the Middle East
The US responded to the violence and instability in the Middle East following the October 7th attack and Israel's war on Gaza by immediately providing security assistance and military aid to Israel, as well as surging US forces into the region to show support for Israel and prevent the conflict from spreading. This response was characterized by a strong emphasis on military power and unconditional arms transfers to Israel, which were veiled in secrecy. The Biden administration has not signaled any intention to acknowledge the failures of this strategy or adjust it. The US's habitual security-first approach to the Middle East has proved costly and has kept the US heavily involved in the region despite previous rhetoric of pivoting away.
US Dependence on Military Power in the Middle East
The US has historically relied heavily on military power in the Middle East, and this approach is further exemplified by its current response to the violence in the region. The US continues to maintain a significant military presence in the Middle East, with around 30,000 to 40,000 troops spread across bases and various military assets. The Biden administration's posture review did not result in any significant changes to this presence. Military power has been prioritized over alternative methods of engagement and diplomacy, contributing to the perpetuation of US involvement in the region.
Shifting to a Two-Pronged Approach in the Middle East
While advocating for a substantial reduction in US military presence in the Middle East, there is a need to invest in building the capabilities and resilience of regional partners. The focus should be on training these partners for self-sufficiency and self-defense rather than merely interoperability with US operations. By empowering regional partners to effectively deal with security challenges, the burden on the United States can be reduced. This approach also emphasizes the importance of collaboration among regional countries to address threats collectively, rather than relying solely on the US to lead the way.
Risks of Escalation, Backlash, and Overstretch
The US response to the violence and instability in the Middle East carries significant risks. The surge in US forces could potentially trigger an escalatory spiral rather than preventing one, especially considering the vulnerability of small US forces in the region. Furthermore, the US's close association with Israel's response to the conflict has led to a backlash across the Arab world and increased anti-American sentiment. The US's ongoing military presence in the Middle East, combined with its focus on Asia-Pacific strategic priorities, has also created concerns regarding overstretch and the allocation of finite resources. These risks highlight the need for a reassessment of US strategy and engagement in the Middle East.
Renewed conflict in the Middle East increases the costs and risks of America's entanglement in the region, and despite the strategic case for retrenchment, there is no sign of a substantial change to U.S. foreign policy there. Jennifer Kavanagh of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discusses America's costly, security-first approach to the Middle East, the Biden administration's support for Israel, policy inertia and the reluctance to change posture, the risks of escalation, backlash, and overstretch, and why the use of force in U.S. foreign policy is increasingly ineffective.