Redefining Energy - TECH 51. The Hydrogen Titanic (1/2)
May 14, 2025
36:47
In this episode of Redefining Energy Tech, host Michael Barnard sat down with Dr. Joseph Romm—physicist, energy policy veteran, and author of The Hype About Hydrogen—to pull back the curtain on hydrogen’s persistent mystique. Romm isn’t new to the debate. Back in the early 2000s, he was among the first to publicly challenge the logic of hydrogen as a viable energy carrier. Now, twenty years later, he’s back with a completely rewritten edition of his book, just in time for Earth Day, and the message hasn’t changed: the hydrogen hype is still hype.
What makes Romm’s critique so compelling is his history. He once supported hydrogen research while in the Clinton-era Department of Energy, betting on Sandia Labs’ onboard gasoline reformers. But that hope dissolved under the weight of technical reality. In 2003, as the Bush administration rolled out its $1.3 billion hydrogen initiative, Romm published the first edition of The Hype About Hydrogen, drawing a stark contrast between hydrogen’s theoretical promise and its practical inefficiency. The fundamental math hasn’t budged. Hydrogen production, storage, transport, and conversion wastes up to 80% of the original renewable electricity. Batteries? They waste closer to 20%.
Fast forward to today, and hydrogen is once again being paraded as a climate solution, this time with a new coat of green paint. But Romm’s updated research shows the same miscalculations baked into the models of the IEA, CSIRO, and even PIK—institutions that projected green hydrogen prices based on wildly optimistic learning curves. Hydrogen didn’t follow the same cost trajectory as solar or batteries. In fact, between 2020 and 2024, the cost of electrolyzers increased by 40%—a staggering reversal of expectations that should have set off alarm bells across boardrooms and ministries.
We also tackled the real-world energy transition playing out in China. While Western nations argue over tariffs and watch supply chains buckle, China is installing 350 gigawatts of solar and wind in a single year—ten times its nuclear additions—and prioritizing direct electrification over hydrogen. It’s not just policy rhetoric; it’s industrial reality.
This divergence is becoming painfully clear in the transport sector. European advisors have publicly declared hydrogen “dead for trucks,” pointing instead to the obvious solution: battery-electric vehicles and megawatt-scale charging infrastructure. The market is responding. Companies trying to straddle both hydrogen and battery bets—Van Hool, Quantron, Nikola—are struggling or collapsing. Romm calls this “narrative disarticulation”—an elegant way of saying that serious people are quietly walking away from the hydrogen dream.
His final warning is unequivocal: investing in hydrogen based on outdated assumptions is a recipe for stranded assets and political distraction. Industry’s call to support “dirty hydrogen now, clean later” isn’t just a bait-and-switch—it’s a carbon trap dressed up in green branding. If we’re serious about climate, it’s time to let go of the hydrogen mirage and double down on what we know works: clean, efficient electrification.
Want to rethink your assumptions on hydrogen? This is the episode to listen to.
What makes Romm’s critique so compelling is his history. He once supported hydrogen research while in the Clinton-era Department of Energy, betting on Sandia Labs’ onboard gasoline reformers. But that hope dissolved under the weight of technical reality. In 2003, as the Bush administration rolled out its $1.3 billion hydrogen initiative, Romm published the first edition of The Hype About Hydrogen, drawing a stark contrast between hydrogen’s theoretical promise and its practical inefficiency. The fundamental math hasn’t budged. Hydrogen production, storage, transport, and conversion wastes up to 80% of the original renewable electricity. Batteries? They waste closer to 20%.
Fast forward to today, and hydrogen is once again being paraded as a climate solution, this time with a new coat of green paint. But Romm’s updated research shows the same miscalculations baked into the models of the IEA, CSIRO, and even PIK—institutions that projected green hydrogen prices based on wildly optimistic learning curves. Hydrogen didn’t follow the same cost trajectory as solar or batteries. In fact, between 2020 and 2024, the cost of electrolyzers increased by 40%—a staggering reversal of expectations that should have set off alarm bells across boardrooms and ministries.
We also tackled the real-world energy transition playing out in China. While Western nations argue over tariffs and watch supply chains buckle, China is installing 350 gigawatts of solar and wind in a single year—ten times its nuclear additions—and prioritizing direct electrification over hydrogen. It’s not just policy rhetoric; it’s industrial reality.
This divergence is becoming painfully clear in the transport sector. European advisors have publicly declared hydrogen “dead for trucks,” pointing instead to the obvious solution: battery-electric vehicles and megawatt-scale charging infrastructure. The market is responding. Companies trying to straddle both hydrogen and battery bets—Van Hool, Quantron, Nikola—are struggling or collapsing. Romm calls this “narrative disarticulation”—an elegant way of saying that serious people are quietly walking away from the hydrogen dream.
His final warning is unequivocal: investing in hydrogen based on outdated assumptions is a recipe for stranded assets and political distraction. Industry’s call to support “dirty hydrogen now, clean later” isn’t just a bait-and-switch—it’s a carbon trap dressed up in green branding. If we’re serious about climate, it’s time to let go of the hydrogen mirage and double down on what we know works: clean, efficient electrification.
Want to rethink your assumptions on hydrogen? This is the episode to listen to.