Futur-ish 003: The Space Trash Apocalypse You Haven’t Been Thinking About
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Sep 4, 2025 Explore the looming threat of space debris and the concept of Kessler syndrome, where cascading satellite collisions could spell disaster. Discover how recent mega-constellations are escalating the risks. Delve into the economic and technological chaos that could follow if our satellite infrastructure collapses. Debate the sufficiency of the Outer Space Treaty in the face of modern commercial activities, and ponder whether society should embrace continuous transformation in a rapidly changing world.
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How Kessler Syndrome Works
- Kessler syndrome is a cascading chain reaction where one satellite's debris destroys others, creating more debris.
- This can obliterate space-based GPS, communications, and Earth observation infrastructure permanently.
Small Fragments, Massive Risk
- Tiny fragments under 1 cm can destroy satellites because orbital velocities are extremely high.
- There are hundreds of thousands to millions of such small fragments already in orbit, creating persistent risk.
Real Collisions Have Already Happened
- China’s 2007 anti-satellite test destroyed a weather satellite and created about 3,000 trackable debris pieces.
- The 2009 accidental collision between Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 produced roughly 2,000 trackable fragments, showing both deliberate and accidental risks.