Under the Banyan Tree - A rare wobble for Hong Kong property
Sep 29, 2023
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Join Herald van der Linde, Michelle Kwok, and Raymond Liu as they analyze the current state of the real estate market in Hong Kong, discuss the falling property prices and weak demand, and explore the impact of government policies. They also examine the outlook for the retail market, the recovery of the retail market in Hong Kong, and the challenges faced by the residential market. Finally, they discuss the challenges in the office market, the impact of Covid, and expectations for the future.
Hong Kong property market experiencing a downturn with falling prices and weak demand, expected to continue until 2024.
Government initiatives to attract top talent back to Hong Kong driving demand for property in the rental market.
Deep dives
Hong Kong Property Market Trends
The Hong Kong property market is experiencing a slowdown, with falling prices and weak demand. Property prices had a positive start in 2024 but have tilled off since then, with only a 1.3% increase year to date. Analysts expect prices to continue falling until 2024. Unlike mainland China, where people buy when prices are rising, Hong Kong buyers see falling prices as an opportunity to enter the market and establish a new equilibrium price. Government policies in mainland China are more strict and direct, while Hong Kong takes a more subtle approach.
Initiatives to Attract Talent
To combat the trend of people leaving Hong Kong, the government has implemented initiatives to attract top talent back to the city. The top talent pass scheme aims to bring in individuals with a certain income bracket and education background. As of now, 26,000 out of 100,000 applicants have been approved. The return of talent to Hong Kong has led to a 2.1% population growth, which is expected to drive demand for property, particularly in the rental market.
Mixed Outlook for Retail and Commercial Markets
The retail market in Hong Kong is showing signs of recovery, with a 20% increase in retail sales compared to last year. The return of mainland Chinese tourists has played a significant role in this recovery. However, their spending behavior has changed, with many spending less. Additionally, more Hong Kong residents are visiting shopping malls in Shenzhen due to the appreciation of the Hong Kong dollar. On the other hand, the commercial segment, particularly the office market, is facing challenges due to oversupply and downsizing by multinational corporations and financial institutions. Office rents are over 30% below pre-COVID levels, and the recovery in this segment remains slow.