China Unscripted This Could Force Xi Jinping Out
Dec 20, 2025
Guermantes Lailari, a former U.S. Air Force strategist, dives deep into the precarious position of Xi Jinping, who fears losing power amid a massive purge within the CCP. Lailari explains deterrence by denial as a strategy for Taiwan, highlighting the importance of maintaining control over Taipei. He discusses potential initial moves by the PLA and emphasizes the political stakes for Xi—failure in Taiwan could endanger his regime. The conversation also touches on Taiwan's missile-defense cooperation with Israel, adding another layer to the complex geopolitical landscape.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Denial Over Destruction
- Deterrence by denial aims to prevent the adversary from achieving objectives rather than defeating them outright.
- Guermantes Lailari compares it to Israel's Iron Dome and Ukraine denying Russia's rapid victory.
Taiwan's Core Defensive Goal
- For Taiwan, denial means preventing China from taking Taipei and full control of the island.
- Partial gains like Penghu or Kinmen don't achieve Beijing's objective of conquering all of Taiwan.
Gradual Escalation Options
- China could begin with high-impact strikes or non-kinetic blockades to set the tone and apply pressure.
- The PLA might aim to isolate Taiwan while limiting broad escalation to avoid provoking a full multinational response.