Exploring the impact of a deflationary environment on stakeholders. Inconsistency between consumer sentiment and economic data. Germany's technical recession and challenges for fiscal stimulus. Thematic investing and the upside of automation for labor enhancement.
Super core inflation, which takes out food, energy, shelter, and used vehicles, is a better indicator of general price levels and is currently below 1990s levels, raising concerns of potential deflation.
Falling prices can hinder growth as they impact volume, demand, and consumption, which make up 70% of US GDP, highlighting the irony that falling prices can actually hinder growth.
Deep dives
Inflation and Deflation Concerns
The podcast episode discusses the concern of too much deflation following a period of inflation. The managing director of Bain's Macro Trends Group explains that while headline inflation figures have been pleasantly low due to factors like energy prices working their way out, super core inflation, which takes out food, energy, shelter, and used vehicles, is a better indicator of general price levels. Super core inflation is currently below 1990s levels, raising concerns of potential deflation. The potential impact of deflation on retailers, inventory, and consumer behavior is also discussed.
Inconsistent Consumer Sentiment
The podcast explores the inconsistent nature of consumer sentiment compared to objective economic data. While personal consumption has returned to pre-pandemic levels, real disposable income is still significantly lower. The challenge of getting incomes back to pre-pandemic levels is examined, considering factors like a surge in hiring, rising wages, steep deflation, or a massive deficit-funded stimulus. The impact of falling prices on volume, demand, and consumption, which make up 70% of US GDP, is highlighted, showing the irony that falling prices can actually hinder growth.
Rebalancing and Challenges in Europe
The podcast touches on the need for economic rebalancing and the challenges faced by the UK and Germany. In the UK, the Office of National Statistics revised its estimates to show a stronger economy than initially thought, indicating possible recovery. However, the impact of Brexit remains a challenge. In Germany, technical recession and potential deeper recession are discussed, primarily due to a recent court ruling hindering fiscal stimulus and investments in growth areas like digital and climate transition. The importance of focusing on longer-term growth and thematic investing, such as automation, is emphasized.