Tom Porcelli reacts to US CPI report, Tom Forte discusses Apple stock and share buybacks. Regina Mayor talks about demand destruction in oil. French Hill discusses impeachment probe into President Biden. Doug Kass talks about challenges faced by Apple stock. Exploration of wages, revenue, and inflation challenges. Analysis of Apple's position in US-China tensions and upcoming iPhone release. Discussion on global demand for petroleum and supply challenges. Impeachment inquiry, cost of living, and financial markets concerns.
Various data points suggest challenges in the consumer landscape, including weaker sales, rising auto delinquency rates, and reduced discretionary spending.
The impact of stock buybacks on Apple's EPS accretion is diminishing, leading to concerns about its capital allocation strategy and future prospects.
Deep dives
Consumer Challenges and Changing Trends in Retail
Various data points suggest that the consumer landscape is facing challenges. Dollar General and Restoration Hardware reported weaker sales and guidance. Auto delinquency rates are rising, which could indicate financial stress among consumers. There are also signs of reduced discretionary spending for pet-related products. Excess savings are being drawn down, and consumer credit debt is increasing. Additionally, rising gasoline prices and weakening traffic for airlines indicate the impact of inflation and higher costs. These factors could potentially affect the overall health of the consumer market.
Apple's Capital Allocation and Short Position
Apple has been known for its strong capital allocation strategy and stock buybacks. However, the impact of stock buybacks on EPS accretion is diminishing due to higher interest rates and a higher stock price. The short position on Apple is based on the belief that its capital allocation story may be losing steam. While shorting iconic companies like Apple is unusual, it is considered by some as a conviction short due to concerns with its cash allocation and future prospects.
Risks Ahead for Financial Markets
The current market climate is marked by a complacency among investors, despite the potential risks and distortions in the global economy. As monetary policy tightens and the impact of years of excessive monetary largesse becomes apparent, vulnerabilities are emerging in the banking industry and the labor market. Additionally, skyrocketing deficits, rising interest rates, and structural market changes are contributing to economic and market imbalances. These distortions could lead to significant risk in the future.
The Fragility of Consumer Resilience
While consumer resilience has been touted, there are signs that it may not hold up in the face of various challenges. For instance, reports of reduced sales and guidance from Dollar General and Restoration Hardware indicate a potential shift in consumer behavior. Rising auto delinquency rates and decreased spending on pet-related products further highlight the changing trends. Additionally, the impact of inflation, rising fuel prices, and weaker traffic for airlines suggest that the consumer landscape could be facing greater stress.
Tom Porcelli, PGIM Fixed Income Chief US Economist, reacts to the US August CPI report. Tom Forte, DA Davidson Sr. Research Analyst, says Apple stock is being held up by the iPhone and share buybacks. Regina Mayor, KPMG Global Head of Clients & Markets Rep, says demand destruction in oil would kick in if gas prices go substantially over $4. French Hill (R) Arkansas, discusses House Speaker McCarthy launching an impeachment probe into President Biden. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President talks about Apple, and why he thinks the stock is facing serious challenges. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance