Dr Mike Orkin on Blackjack, Lightning, and Apophenia: The Surprising Psychology of Probability

On this episode of Data Driven, we’re shuffling up some probability, statistics, and a bit of Las Vegas magic with Dr. Michael Orkin—a renowned statistician, data scientist, and former advisor to casino odds makers. Hosts Andy Leonard, Frank La Vigne, and BAILeY dig into the fascinating numbers behind games of chance, uncovering why the house almost always wins and how our brains are wired to find patterns—sometimes where none exist.

Whether you’re a data enthusiast, a casual gambler wondering why your lucky streak never lasts, or just curious about how randomness, probability, and big jackpots work, this episode has you covered. Dr. Orkin breaks down concepts like the house edge, expected value, card counting, the allure (and statistical pitfalls) of lottery tickets, and the psychology driving “hot” and “due” gambling strategies. Plus, he weighs in on lightning strikes, Black Swan events, correlation and causation, and the curious human habit of seeing connections in random outcomes.

So, get ready for a lively conversation that reminds us data is everywhere—especially where stakes are high and luck seems just out of reach. Whether you’re here for probability puns, real-world math, or the stories Vegas doesn’t want you to know, this is one episode you won’t want to miss!

Links

The Story of Chance https://amzn.to/45qOe8x

Dr Mike's Substack https://drmikeorkin.substack.com/

Moments

00:00 Casino House Edge Explained

08:54 "Random Chance and Unlikely Events"

12:03 Justifying Buying Lottery Tickets

16:58 "SBF: Crypto King Unraveled"

26:34 Lightning Strike Probability Calculation Issues

32:26 Average Beyond Desk Boundaries

33:26 "Defining Accident Prone"

39:31 Misjudging Odds with Normal Curve

45:50 Avoiding Lightning Strikes: Bay Area

55:11 Casino Mind Games Experience

56:20 Roulette Betting Strategies: Apophenia

01:03:33 "Dr. Orkin's Website & Substack"

01:07:19 "Probability and the House Edge"