In this intriguing discussion, Professor Richard Wiseman, a skeptical psychologist, shares his experiments on astrology's influence on luck and financial markets. Jo Marchant, a journalist and author, delves into astrology's historical ties to ancient civilizations and its resurgence in modern society. They humorously explore the scientific scrutiny of astrology, including studies on personality traits and the allure of horoscopes. The conversation also examines how astrology parallels with data science and its psychological effects on today's youth.
Astrology originated from ancient civilizations' belief in celestial influences on earthly events, but modern science debunks these connections.
Surveys reveal significant belief in astrology among populations, suggesting a societal need for certainty amid life's unpredictability.
Rigorous scientific tests show no evidence supporting astrological claims, reflecting its reliance on psychological biases rather than factual accuracy.
Deep dives
Astrology: A Historical Perspective
Astrology has deep historical roots, originating when astrology and astronomy were viewed as one discipline. Ancient civilizations like the Egyptians and Mayans integrated celestial events with agricultural cycles, believing the movements of stars had significant terrestrial implications. This connection made sense in the early human context, as celestial patterns directly influenced seasonal behaviors such as planting crops or hunting. However, modern science reveals that these correlations were misunderstood; celestial bodies do not govern earthly events.
Contemporary Beliefs in Astrology
Despite its scientific discreditation, astrology remains remarkably popular, with significant portions of the population engaging with horoscopes. Surveys indicate that around 8% of people in the UK and 14% in the United States believe in astrology's predictive power. Notably, some prominent figures, including politicians, have historically relied on astrological guidance for important decisions, showcasing its impact on societal beliefs and behaviors. This continued fascination reflects a societal need for certainty amid unpredictability.
Scientific Testing of Astrology
Rigorous scientific testing has consistently shown no evidence supporting astrology's claims about personality or future predictions. Experiments where individuals matched their horoscopes to their true astrological signs have generally produced results equivalent to random chance, debunking the validity of astrological characteristics. Additionally, studies comparing individuals born at similar times—known as time twins—demonstrate no significant similarities in personality or career outcomes. Such findings reinforce the notion that astrology lacks scientific foundation.
Psychological Underpinnings of Astrological Beliefs
The appeal of astrology can often be tied to psychological concepts like confirmation bias, where individuals remember only the traits that affirm their beliefs and ignore those that do not. Astrology provides comforting narratives in times of uncertainty by suggesting that one's life has a mapped-out path. People are drawn to astrology because it offers a sense of control over their fate, which can be particularly attractive during stressful periods. This attraction to predictive frameworks can explain the resurgence of astrology, especially among younger generations.
The Role of Seasons in Luck
Interestingly, while astrology itself is baseless, some research indicates that the season one is born in may influence certain psychological traits, such as perceived luck. Studies have suggested that individuals born in summer may consider themselves luckier than those born in winter, linking this to variations in parental guidance and environmental factors. This intriguing avenue of research does not validate astrology but highlights a potential correlation between birth timing and subsequent psychological outlooks. Thus, while celestial positions do not dictate life outcomes, they intersect with human experiences in unexpected ways.
Astrology – could there be something to it? asks Dan from Australia. Rutherford and Fry investigate the science that has investigated astrology.
Professor Richard Wiseman, (sceptical of all things paranormal and a Virgo) and Professor in the Public Understanding of Psychology at the University of Hertfordshire, explains the long history of the scientific investigation of astrology. He has also run his own experiments to test whether astrology can help you play the stock market and to investigate if people born in the summer are luckier than those born in the winter – the results may surprise you.
Journalist and author, Jo Marchant (Leo and fascinated non-believer) has written all about the history of astrology in her new book – 'The Human Cosmos – A Secret History to the Stars'. In the beginning astrology and astronomy were one and the same. She explains how astrology flourished with the elite and ruling classes of ancient Babylon, Egypt and Greece.
Data scientist, Alex Boxer (Taurus and cautious astrology tourist) explains that astrology may have been humanity's first attempt to predict the future with algorithms, something we’re doing more and more of now. In his book, ‘A scheme of heaven, astrology and the birth of science’, he describes how astrological and scientific algorithms are all just big data science looking for patterns. The issue lies in what that data is.
Presenters: Hannah Fry (Pisces) & Adam Rutherford (Capricorn)
Producer: Fiona Roberts (Libra)
First broadcast on BBC Radio 4 in 2021.
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