Former peace negotiator, Gershon Baskin, discusses the uncertain future of Hamas hostages and shares changing messages from his contacts in Hamas. The podcast explores the plight of hostages, potential locations, Hamas' statements, and strategies for securing their release.
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Quick takeaways
Hamas has hinted at the possibility of a ceasefire and small prisoner exchange, but the conditions for a deal remain unclear.
Strong and direct American involvement, including pressuring Qatar, is crucial for securing the release of hostages.
Deep dives
Hamas Negotiations and Demands
Negotiating with Hamas for the release of hostages is a complex process, with messages and demands constantly changing. While initially there was bravado and a focus on liberating Palestine, Hamas has recently hinted at the possibility of a ceasefire and even a small prisoner exchange. However, the exact conditions for a deal remain unclear, and Hamas still holds the belief that they can free Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails. The ultimate goal for Hamas is the release of all Palestinian prisoners and the international recognition of their cause.
Where the Hostages Are Held and Rescue Possibilities
The hostages are believed to be held by various factions, including Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the Popular Front, and individual armed captors. Their locations are likely dispersed throughout Gaza, making a large-scale rescue mission like the 1976 Intebi raid impossible. However, Israeli intelligence may have gathered information through confiscated phones and their technological capabilities. Successful rescues are certainly feasible, but the priority for Israel is now eliminating Hamas as a governing body in Gaza, making negotiations or rescue efforts more challenging.
The Role of American and Qatari Involvement
To secure the release of hostages, strong and direct American involvement is crucial. The US government can exert pressure on Qatar, who is known to have influence over Hamas, to issue an ultimatum that unless the hostages are released immediately, Hamas leaders in Qatar could face exile. The threat of sanctions and damage to Qatar's international reputation, particularly as they have invested heavily in the World Cup and improved their standing in the global community, could push them to take decisive action. Israel also needs to balance its military operations with efforts to promote the safety and return of the hostages, but time is running out.
A former peace negotiator who worked on a high-profile prisoner swap on what it could take for captives in Gaza to be returned.
Middle East director for the International Communities Organization Gershon Baskin also explains what he’s hearing from his contacts in Hamas.
For transcripts of Front Burner, please visit: https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/transcripts
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