The David Lin Report Massive Shortages, Empty Shelves In A Few Weeks? 'Bear Market Rally’ Won’t Last | David Hay
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May 4, 2025 David Hay, retired co-CIO of Evergreen Gavekal and founder of Haymaker Publications, shares his insights on the current economic landscape. He discusses alarming GDP declines and warns of rising recession probabilities. Hay highlights safe haven assets like gold and silver, emphasizing their importance amid market volatility. He also dives into the gold-silver ratio and predicts growth opportunities in booming overseas markets. Moreover, he urges investors to diversify globally, considering the U.S.'s underperformance in equities.
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April's Rare Volatility Indicates Bear Market
- April's market volatility is a rare three standard deviation event, typically occurring less than 1% of the time.
- Such extreme volatility usually signals a bear market rally phase prone to sudden reversals.
Tariffs & Supply Chains Impact Q1 GDP
- Q1 2025 GDP showed a 0.3% decline partially due to tariff-driven inventory front-loading.
- Supply chain disruptions and collapsing exports from China risk creating COVID-like shortages soon.
Credit Risks Signal Economic Weakness
- Sharp declines in container bookings from China threaten imminent store shortages in the US.
- Rising credit card delinquencies and consumer loan charge-offs signal growing economic weakness even before tariffs.