“The Industrial Explosion” by rosehadshar, Tom Davidson

Summary

To quickly transform the world, it's not enough for AI to become super smart (the "intelligence explosion").

AI will also have to turbocharge the physical world (the "industrial explosion"). Think robot factories building more and better robot factories, which build more and better robot factories, and so on.

The dynamics of the industrial explosion has gotten remarkably little attention.

This post lays out how the industrial explosion could play out, and how quickly it might happen.

We think the industrial explosion will unfold in three stages:

1. AI-directed human labour, where AI-directed human labourers drive productivity gains in physical capabilities.
   1. We argue this could increase physical output by 10X within a few years.
2. Fully autonomous robot factories, where AI-directed robots (and other physical actuators) replace human physical labour.
   1. We argue that, with current physical technology and full automation of cognitive labour, this physical infrastructure [...]

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Outline:

(00:10) Summary

(01:43) Intro

(04:14) The industrial explosion will start after the intelligence explosion, and will proceed more slowly

(06:50) Three stages of industrial explosion

(07:38) AI-directed human labour

(09:20) Fully autonomous robot factories

(12:04) Nanotechnology

(13:06) How fast could an industrial explosion be?

(13:41) Initial speed

(16:21) Acceleration

(17:38) Maximum speed

(20:01) Appendices

(20:05) How fast could robot doubling times be initially?

(27:47) How fast could robot doubling times accelerate?

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First published:
June 26th, 2025

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Na2CBmNY7otypEmto/the-industrial-explosion

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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