RiskReversal Pod David Rosenberg: "The Fed Just Made a Policy Mistake"
Sep 17, 2026
David Rosenberg, economist and founder of Rosenberg Research, discusses his new ROSY global macro ETF and upcoming book, Bear in the Bull Ring. He challenges the Fed’s hawkish response to an oil-driven shock, questions the strength of the labor market, and warns that rate hikes could spark recession. He also explores stretched valuations, AI concentration, and mounting private-credit stress.
AI Snips
Chapters
Books
Transcript
Episode notes
Rosenberg Turned His Convictions Into ROSY
- David Rosenberg created a personal model portfolio in late 2022 to test his convictions with real money.
- Client demand eventually led him to package the global macro strategy into ROSY, diversified across equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities.
The Fed Is Mistaking Weak Trends For Strength
- Rosenberg argues the Fed is ignoring weakening economic trends while emphasizing isolated inflation data points.
- Year-over-year employment, disposable income, and industrial production growth are near zero or only 1%, hardly evidence of a robust economy.
Falling Wage Growth Challenges The Tight Labor Story
- A 4.1% unemployment rate does not prove a tight labor market when hiring and voluntary quits are falling.
- Rosenberg points to slowing nominal wage growth near 3% as evidence that workers lack bargaining power.
