My New Book, Same As Ever: A Guide to What Never Changes
Nov 7, 2023
15:07
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The podcast discusses the release of a new book called 'Same as Ever: A Guide to What Never Changes' which explores timeless human behavior. Topics include the cycle of greed and fear, the impact of crisis on technological innovations, and the power of incentives in driving innovation.
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Quick takeaways
The ability to tell a compelling story is often more influential than having the best or most rational ideas.
Many decisions and behaviors are not solely driven by rational thinking or logical calculations.
Happiness largely depends on expectations, rather than objective circumstances.
Deep dives
Storytelling as a Powerful Tool
The ability to tell a compelling story is often more influential than having the best or most rational ideas. History has shown that a well-told story, even with flawed or outdated ideas, can have a significant impact while great ideas poorly explained may go unnoticed. People are busy and emotional, making it difficult to sift through data and statistics. Thus, a good story, which resonates with people and catches their attention, is more persuasive than cold facts.
Decisions Driven by Human Element
Many decisions and behaviors are not solely driven by rational thinking or logical calculations. The intricate human element, which is challenging to quantify or explain, often influences decisions more than any other factor. Attempting to rationalize and reduce human behavior to mathematical equations can lead to frustration and surprise. As historian Will Durant observed, logic may be an invention of man but is frequently disregarded by the universe.
Expectations and the Pursuit of Happiness
Happiness largely depends on expectations, rather than objective circumstances. As societies progress and living standards improve, people's expectations rise in tandem. However, because comparative well-being matters more to individuals than absolute wealth or advancements, increased expectations often lead to a feeling of relative stagnation. John D. Rockefeller, despite lacking modern conveniences, cannot be argued to be worse off than a disadvantaged individual today. People's perceptions are largely influenced by those around them, making it difficult to achieve a stable sense of contentment amidst societal progress.
The Cycle of Greed and Fear
Greed and fear often follow a cyclical pattern. Optimism leads to overconfidence, debt accumulation, and economic instability. Stability creates complacency, which further exacerbates the buildup of risk. Eventually, a triggering event causes a panic, followed by acceptance, recovery, and a return to the initial state of optimism. This cycle has repeated throughout history, and attempts to eliminate it by preventing recessions have proven futile. Stability actually breeds further instability, demonstrating that calmness itself can sow the seeds of chaos.
Innovation during Times of Crisis
Throughout history, major innovations and breakthroughs have often emerged during or after times of crisis. Military conflicts, recessions, and panics serve as catalysts for rapid problem-solving and technological advancements. The intense urgency and dire consequences drive people to solve pressing problems and innovate at an unprecedented pace. Such periods of necessity have produced remarkable progress, from the development of nuclear energy and microprocessors to space exploration.
Conclusion
The book 'Same as Ever' explores the timeless aspects of human behavior and the enduring lessons derived from history. It emphasizes the power of storytelling, the influence of the human element in decision-making, the impact of expectations on happiness, the cyclical nature of greed and fear, and the extraordinary innovations born out of necessity. By examining these themes, the author seeks to offer valuable insights into human behavior and the enduring patterns that persist despite ever-changing circumstances.
My new book, Same as Ever: A Guide to What Never Changes, is out today.
Books are hard, a multi-year slog from start to finish. But I’m excited for you to read this. I think it’s the best writing I’ve ever done. And it was fun to write! My hope is that you enjoy reading it half as much as I enjoyed writing it.
My first book, The Psychology of Money, was really about how you, the individual behave. Same As Ever is about how we, the collective, behave, and what we keep doing over and over.
It’s 23 short stories about what never changes in a changing world.
I’ve been thinking about this book for my entire career. I’ve always been skeptical of forecasts, because the world’s track record on predicting the next recession, the next election, or the next technology is so bad. That should draw you to the question: What’s never going to change?
What do we know for certain is going to be part of our future?
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