Apple News Today
What early voting can and can’t tell us
Oct 21, 2024
Gideon Resnick, Apple News editor, shares insights on what early voting data reveals about upcoming elections, emphasizing the complexities of voter turnout. Jamie Thompson, a contributing writer at The Atlantic, explores the alarming rise in carjackings in D.C., linking it to deeper societal issues and challenges in law enforcement. They dissect how early voting trends can mislead predictions and the emotional toll that urban violence has on communities, shedding light on the need for strategic approaches to these pressing concerns.
15:31
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Quick takeaways
- Early voting data shows record participation, but doesn’t reliably predict final election outcomes due to varying voter preferences on Election Day.
- The surge in D.C. carjackings reflects deeper societal issues like pandemic impacts and policing criticisms, underscoring the need for addressing root causes.
Deep dives
High Early Voting Impact
Early voting has already seen over 14 million ballots cast ahead of Election Day, setting records in critical battleground states like Georgia and North Carolina. While many interpret these figures to gauge party success, early turnout doesn’t necessarily indicate the final outcome, as the ballots are not tallied until Election Day. Historical patterns suggest that Democrats have benefited more from early voting, with around 60% voting by mail in the last election compared to 32% of Republicans. However, the current election landscape remains unpredictable, as a significant number of Republican voters may prefer to vote in person on Election Day.
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