Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe Edition Daybreak Weekend: Pfizer Deal, Nobel Peace, Golden Week
Oct 3, 2025
The discussion dives into how new tariffs on lumber and timber could significantly impact U.S. housing costs. There's a spotlight on Pfizer's recent deal with the White House and its implications for drug pricing. Upcoming Nobel Prize decisions stir political intrigue, with predictions about potential winners and the processes behind nominations. In Asia, insights on Golden Week hint at its effects on consumer spending, while concerns about Hong Kong's real estate landscape reveal challenges for wealthy families.
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Tariffs Add Significant Costs To Homebuilding
- New tariffs on lumber, timber and fixtures raise builder costs materially, estimated at about $10,000 per home.
- The burden will spread through the supply chain and hit smaller private builders hardest, reducing new production.
Domestic Lumber Can’t Replace Imports Quickly
- The U.S. imports roughly 85% of its lumber from Canada and domestic production covers about 70% of demand.
- Achieving full domestic self-sufficiency in lumber would take around a decade, so short-term supply gaps remain.
Watch Smaller Builders For Early Slowdown Signals
- Expect smaller private builders to delay or cancel projects when faced with tariff uncertainty.
- Monitor builder planning and production as indicators of near-term housing supply changes.