Victor Davis Hanson: Israel-Iran War Will ‘Be For Naught’ if the Regime, Nuclear Program Survive

Jun 18, 2025

Victor Davis Hanson delves into the precarious balance of power in the Middle East, emphasizing that a successful military campaign against Iran could be futile if the regime remains. He discusses the surprising decline of Iran's influence and its terror proxies, noting the absence of Russian support in the region. The conversation touches on U.S. intervention strategies and the stark ideological divides surrounding them, revealing a critical concern about the implications of allowing Iran’s nuclear ambitions to survive.

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INSIGHT

Iran's Waning Regional Control

Iran has lost control over its terrorist surrogates like the Houthis and Hamas, which are now neutered.
Its influence in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza is collapsing amid regional chaos and the absence of Russian support.

INSIGHT

Israel's Military Advances and Risks

Israel has dismantled most of Iran's missile and nuclear capabilities but has suffered casualties from Iranian ballistic missiles and drones.
Despite high interception rates, some Iranian weapons still get through, maintaining the conflict's intensity.

INSIGHT

Critical Nuclear Program Outcome

The war's outcome hinges on whether Iran's regime and nuclear program survive intact or not.
If Iran emerges unscathed with a recoverable nuclear infrastructure, the conflict's impact will be essentially nullified.

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Regardless of whether Israel has the capabilities to decimate Iran’s entire nuclear program, or if the United States needs to become further involved in the war and provide Israel with “bunker-buster” bombs, one thing is clear: “If this war should end with the Iranian regime intact and the elements of its nuclear program recoverable, then, in some ways, it will be all for naught,” argues Victor Davis Hanson on today’s edition of “Victor Davis Hanson: In His Own Words.”

“It is surreal. If we had this conversation five years ago and I said to you, ‘the Iranian nation—that is huge compared to Israel, 10 times the population—the Iranian nation has lost all control of the Houthi terrorists and they are themselves neutered. Their surrogates in the West Bank, Gaza are neutered. They're gone, Hamas as a fighting force. The formidable, the terrifying Hezbollah cadres, they're inert.

‘“‘There is no Russian presence. It's not a patron. It is not a protector. It's not a power in the Middle East. It's tied down in Ukraine. And Iran itself, the formidable powerhouse of the Middle East that evoked terror all over, has no defenses.

“And we're down to a single critical issue… if this war should end with the Iranian regime intact and the elements of its nuclear program recoverable, then, in some ways, it will be all for naught.’”

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00:00 Introduction: A Historic Moment in the Middle East

01:40 The Iranian-Israeli Conflict: A Surreal Scenario

02:08 The Current State of Iran and Its Allies

03:21 Israel's Strategic Moves and the Critical Issue

04:25 The Role of the United States and Potential Outcomes

06:20 Conclusion: The Future of the Middle East

07:17 Closing Remarks and Call to Action

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