Sep. 19, 2022: What two new polls tell us about the midterms

Is 2022 a ‘waves’ election? Evidence that the election will likely be closer than originally thought continues to mount, as two new polls give a sense of the contours of the race.

First, there's the NBC poll, which paints a decidedly mixed portrait. Seven weeks out, voters are evenly split at 46% in their preference for which party should control Congress next year. Biden’s approval rating has risen to its highest in 11 months, while DONALD TRUMP’s favorability has dropped. Sixty-one percent oppose the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision, 63% said their income is falling behind the cost of living, and “threats to democracy” ranked as the issue most important to voters.

Republican dreams that a huge swath of Latino voters will run to their side aren’t coming true — yet. That comes from our second poll, the latest from the NYT and Siena College, which shows Democrats maintaining a hold on the Latino electorate. Asked which party’s candidate they’d vote for if the election were held today, 56% of Latinos sided with the Democrats, compared to 32% for the Republicans.

Kara Tabor is a producer for POLITICO Audio.
Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.