Steven Gorelik: Investing Lessons from Stock Picking in Two Very Different Regions
Aug 26, 2024
auto_awesome
Steven Gorelik, a seasoned investor originally from Belarus, shares insights on investing in both Eastern European and U.S. markets. He discusses how his experiences under communism shaped his understanding of capitalism. The conversation dives into the nuances of long-term investment strategies, emphasizing local economic conditions and political stability. Gorelik also highlights the importance of documenting investment decisions and maintaining personal conviction, all while revealing trends in the S&P 500 and the dynamic nature of cash flows in driving investment returns.
Understanding sociopolitical nuances is crucial for investing in emerging markets, impacting long-term success beyond mere fundamental analysis.
A background in a communist regime shapes a nuanced investment perspective, emphasizing the significance of independent decision-making in capitalism.
Investing in leading local banks in emerging markets can yield high returns due to their integral role in economic growth and client relationships.
Deep dives
Fundamental Approaches to Emerging and Developed Markets
Investing in developed and emerging markets can follow similar fundamental analysis steps, but understanding the underlying sociopolitical nuances is essential, particularly in emerging economies. The macroeconomic environment, along with the incentives driving businesses, significantly influences their long-term success, especially where established economic systems might not yet exist. For instance, investors must be aware of the regulatory landscape and how it can impact company operations in places like Poland or Estonia compared to developed markets like the U.S. This knowledge extends beyond raw data, prompting investors to consider the human elements and systemic incentives at play.
Impact of Economic Background on Investment Philosophy
A background in a communist regime like Belarus shapes an investor's perspective towards capitalism and market dynamics. The transition to a free market system exposed individuals to the stark differences in how businesses operate, reinforcing the importance of incentives in economic behavior. Experiences from childhood, such as witnessing market shortages, foster an appreciation for free market principles and raise skepticism about state-controlled economies. This perspective can lead to a more nuanced approach to investing, valuing the ability to make independent business decisions free from governmental constraints.
Understanding Market Behavior and Investment Decisions
Investors must remain vigilant about the political climate in emerging markets, as political upheaval can significantly disrupt business operations and affect investment returns. Distinguishing between stable business environments and corrupt democracies helps investors identify where long-term investments stand to flourish. Companies in emerging markets that are majority family-owned can often demonstrate a greater commitment to long-term planning compared to those in politically unstable regions. This underscores the importance of identifying reliable management and stable structural incentives when assessing potential investments.
Identifying Opportunities in Financial Institutions
Investing in leading local financial institutions in emerging markets often proves to be a highly profitable strategy due to their integral role in economic growth. Established banks benefit from leveraging their local knowledge to make quicker and more relevant lending decisions compared to international peers. The potential for exponential returns arises from capturing market share in growing economies while fostering long-term, profitable relationships with clients. Consequently, understanding the operational landscape and identifying the best local banks can yield substantial rewards for investors in these regions.
Shifting Market Dynamics and Investment Strategies
A notable trend in contemporary markets reveals that a smaller percentage of stocks are driving overall benchmark performance, indicating a concentration of wealth in a few large entities. Historical data suggests that at times, only about 25% of stocks outperform benchmarks, raising critical questions about long-term investment strategies. Active management might offer an advantage over passive investments, as it allows for targeted exposure based on fundamental analysis rather than market cap weightings. As investors contemplate their next steps, focusing on businesses that deliver solid cash flows and maintaining a long-term view becomes increasingly important.
My guest today is Steven Gorelik, in the spirit of keeping these intros short, find all about Steve in the notes. In two sentences — Steve was born in Belarus during the Cold War, moved to the States, fell in love with investing, and has a lot to share both about the US market and the Eastern European markets.
In my mind, both experiences build on top of each other and complete a much deeper, broader perspective that can be very helpful in long-term investing. If you want to hear more about how investing in two very different regions can make you a better investor, tune in, and listen to our conversation.In addition to being Head of Research at Firebird Management, Steve Gorelik is the Lead Fund Manager of Firebird U.S. Value Fund as well as portfolio manager of Firebird’s Eastern Europe and Russia Funds. He joined Firebird in 2005 from Columbia University Graduate School of Business while completing education from a highly selective Value Investing Program. Prior to business school, Steve was an operational strategy consultant at Deloitte working with companies in various industries including banking, healthcare, and retail. He holds a BS degree from Carnegie Mellon University as well as a CFA (chartered financial analyst) charter and a membership in Beta Gamma Sigma honor society. Steve serves on the number of supervisory boards of listed and private companies in the Baltics. He speaks Russian, English and his native Belarussian.www.fbird.com
Takeaways
Understanding the economic environment and incentives is crucial for successful investing in different regions.Family ownership in Eastern European businesses often leads to long-term decision-making and alignment with investment approaches.Corrupt democracies pose challenges for investment decisions, while non-corrupt democracies provide more stability.Investing in the best financial institutions in growing economies can lead to significant returns. Local knowledge and understanding of the local market is crucial for successful investing.Banks play a crucial role in the economy and can benefit from long-term growth trends.Being a minority shareholder requires careful consideration of the company's treatment of minority shareholders.Having conviction in investment decisions is important, but it's also necessary to admit when you're wrong and make necessary adjustments.Investing in companies with shrinking addressable markets can be risky and may lead to poor returns.The concentration of market performance in a few companies raises questions about the long-term sustainability of their success.Active management can provide opportunities to outperform benchmark indexes.
Podcast Program – Disclosure StatementBlue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Get the Snipd podcast app
Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode
Save any moment
Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways
Share & Export
Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode