Commodities Focus Is Japan’s rice supply crisis an opportunity for US and Thai farmers?
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May 19, 2025 Dipanshi Agarwal, an agricultural economist at S&P Global Commodity Insights, sheds light on Japan's rice supply crisis, driven by adverse weather and rising demand. As prices reach record highs, she discusses how this creates opportunities for US and Thai farmers. The podcast delves into Japan's rice consumption habits and import dynamics, including preferences for quality that challenge exporters. Tariff uncertainties and market stability further complicate the landscape, making it a crucial time for global rice trade.
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Japan's Rice Demand Outpaces Forecast
- Japan's rice supply crisis stems from a surging demand that outpaces government forecasts.
- High demand and tight reserves keep prices elevated despite emergency stock releases.
Hoarding and Panic Inflate Demand
- High retail prices persist due to stock hoarding amid a supply shortfall in 2023.
- Tourism rebound and disaster-related panic artificially inflated rice demand in Japan.
US Rice Export Dynamics
- US rice exports to Japan are predicted to increase by 50,000-75,000 metric tons due to demand spike.
- Overall US rice exports may stagnate due to falling demand in traditional markets like Mexico and Canada.