Prof G Markets: Third Quarter Review — with Aswath Damodaran
Nov 6, 2023
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Aswath Damodaran, finance professor and valuation expert, joins the show to discuss third quarter earnings season. Topics include Meta, Netflix and streaming, Instacart, the Ozempic effect, Birkenstock, Google, and Aswath's new valuation for Tesla.
Intangible assets play a significant role in Birkenstock's valuation, including brand name, management, and collaborations.
GLP1 drugs may have the potential to reduce social media consumption among highly engaged users.
Legacy automobile companies face uncertainties in their electric vehicle ambitions while energy companies experience a shift in the global energy landscape.
Deep dives
Birkenstock's valuation and the importance of intangibles
Birkenstock's valuation was analyzed, highlighting the significance of intangible assets such as brand name, management, and external partnerships. The brand's history, strong management decisions, and collaborations, like the endorsement by Barbie, contribute to its overall value. The evaluation demonstrated that intangibles are already included in an intrinsic valuation based on earnings power and cash flows. Additionally, the discussion emphasized the need to consider the impact of intangibles on a company's bottom line through a sensible and evidence-based approach.
Potential impact of GLP1 drugs on social media consumption
There is a prediction that GLP1 drugs, known for their appetite and craving suppression abilities, may have an impact on social media consumption. It is hypothesized that individuals who are highly engaged and obsessed with social media may reduce their usage while on these drugs. This prediction is based on the assumption that the drugs may suppress the crave for social media engagement and validation, particularly among a small subset of social media users who are heavily addicted. The potential impact of these drugs on social media use could have broader implications for social media companies.
Challenges faced by legacy automobile and energy companies
Legacy automobile companies currently face challenges and uncertainties regarding their electric vehicle (EV) ambitions. These companies are scaling back their EV plans while grappling with the transition to a new business model. In contrast, energy companies are experiencing a shift in the global energy landscape amid the push for alternative energies and the decline in fossil fuel consumption. The impact of these changes on legacy automobile and energy companies remains uncertain, especially as the market dynamics continue to evolve.
Valuing Alphabet beyond its search business
The analysis of Alphabet's valuation suggests that the company's potential lies beyond its search business. While the search engine remains a dominant revenue generator, Alphabet's other ventures have struggled to scale up effectively. It is noted that the company appears to lack urgency and the ability to capitalize on its diverse businesses. However, considering the company's multiple intangible assets and potential developments, the view is presented that Alphabet still holds potential for upside as it re-evaluates its approach and strategy.
Market expectations of higher rates and inflation
Recent market trends indicate an expectation of higher interest rates and inflation. The market appears to believe that these changes are not temporary and a return to low rates is unlikely. These expectations have implications for businesses and investors, as they require adjusting to a new paradigm of potential long-term higher rates. Companies and individuals must recalibrate their financial strategies and evaluate investments accordingly, considering the opportunity cost of higher returns in a higher rate environment.
Scott shares his thoughts on WeWork’s bankruptcy, Saudi Arabia’s World Cup bid, and Disney’s full ownership of Hulu. Then Aswath Damodaran returns to the show to break down third quarter earnings season. They discuss Meta, Netflix and streaming, Instacart, the Ozempic effect, Birkenstock, Google, and Aswath’s new valuation for Tesla.