Perhaps the most devastating thing that could happen in any developed country would be widespread catastrophic damage to its electric power grid. Nearly everything in an industrialized nation relies on electricity to function. Without it, normal water supplies, sewer systems, and communication services are cut off. Furthermore, things like food and transportation are quickly affected when power is down for extended periods.
A severe electromagnetic pulse (EMP) or geomagnetic disturbance (GMD) event could take the power grid down for months, and possibly even for years. An EMP is a very intense pulse of electromagnetic energy, typically caused by the detonation of a nuclear bomb or other high-energy explosive device. A GMD, meanwhile, can be caused when a solar eruption produces a coronal mass ejection (CME) that travels from the sun to the Earth. A direct hit by an extreme CME would cause widespread power blackouts disabling everything that uses electricity. Some experts have suggested that a major EMP or GMD hit could result in the death of up to 90% of the U.S. population.
What makes the event so devastating is that the U.S. power grid is not well-protected from such a strike, and the country is not prepared to recover quickly. Dr. William R. Forstchen, author of more than 40 books including the groundbreaking novel One Second After, which has been credited with raising national awareness to the potential threat posed by an EMP strike, explained the situation as a guest on The POWER Podcast.
Forstchen noted that the U.S. power grid is vulnerable to such an event for a number of reasons. “The average component in our electrical grid is 40 to 50 years old. We are running our electricity on a 1970s, early-1980s industry. We’re not modernizing it,” he said.
A few years ago, the federal government began to address the problem. “The Trump administration finally started taking action about six months before the election in 2020. They mandated DOD [the Department of Defense], DOE [the Department of Energy], all the different agencies to submit a comprehensive analysis of what needs to be done that would then follow by legislative action in the next Congress,” Forstchen explained. However, when Trump lost the election, President Biden immediately killed the initiative, he said.
Forstchen said relatively minor investments could vastly improve the situation. He suggested stockpiling key components is an important first step. “A large transformer for a major substation can cost several million dollars. From the time of ordering one until the big truck pulls up and we start to unload it is two or more years,” Forstchen said. Furthermore, he noted that most of the equipment and components that might be needed to repair the grid are now sourced from other countries, mainly China, which means the U.S. may not be able to get supplies, especially if the attack was initiated by one of those countries. “We should be building a strategic reserve of key electrical components,” he said.
Additionally, Forstchen said the U.S. should focus on a “lifeline to recovery.” He suggested hardening 10% of the grid could act as an insurance policy for the nation. “Let’s say the rest goes down, but we have those lifelines out there that can be used to start repairing things, bringing supplies, and communicate—big thing, communication and transportation,” said Forstchen. Risks could be substantially reduced with relatively minor investments. “I argue $20 to $30 billion a year would at least start ensuring some responsible response to this problem,” Forstchen said.
