RiskReversal Pod Market Vibe Check with Lori Calvasina
Feb 7, 2025
Lori Calvasina, Head of U.S. Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, shares her expertise on market trends and economic indicators. She discusses the effects of geopolitical events and tariffs on stock performance, highlighting current market volatility. The conversation delves into the role of AI in corporate earnings and the complexities within the labor market. Lori emphasizes a disciplined, data-driven approach to analysis amidst uncertainty, while also discussing the implications of interest rates and market valuations.
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Rocky Market Path
- Lori Calvasina predicts a rocky path for the market, despite current highs.
- She anticipates a 5-10% drawdown and emphasizes the market's inability to absorb bad news.
Forecasting Challenges
- Policy uncertainty, particularly around tariffs, regulation, M&A, and taxes, makes forecasting difficult.
- Calvasina highlights the need to see the actual tax bill to understand its potential market impact.
Single-Stock Volatility
- While the VIX remains low, single-stock volatility is increasing, which could foreshadow broader market volatility.
- Calvasina notes that large-cap investors are experiencing volatility similar to what small-cap investors have faced.