AXRP - the AI X-risk Research Podcast 38.7 - Anthony Aguirre on the Future of Life Institute
Feb 9, 2025
Anthony Aguirre, Executive Director of the Future of Life Institute and UC Santa Cruz professor, dives deep into AI safety and governance. He shares insights on the potential of the AI pause initiative and the importance of licensing advanced AI technologies. Aguirre also discusses how Metaculus influences critical decision-making and the evolution of the Future of Life Institute into an advocacy powerhouse. Explore his thoughts on organizing impactful workshops and supporting innovative projects for a sustainable future.
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Anthony Aguirre's Background
- Anthony Aguirre's background is in theoretical physics, holding a professorship at UC Santa Cruz.
- He transitioned to focus on transformative technologies and co-founded the Future of Life Institute (FLI).
Metaculus and Prediction
- Metaculus, a forecasting platform, was created to aid FLI's future planning and identify skilled predictors.
- Precise probability estimations (e.g., 70% vs. 80%) often hold less practical value than the process of defining clear questions.
Metaculus's Track Record
- Metaculus's prediction of the Ukraine war's likelihood proved surprisingly accurate, influencing some people's decisions.
- The platform's track record lends weight to its predictions, particularly within the AI community regarding AGI timelines.