Experts Mark Galeotti, Gen. David Petraeus, Sanam Vakil, Stig Jarle Hansen discuss Islamic State's threats globally, funding post-territorial loss, sincerity of ideology, Putin's challenges amidst recent attacks, and the need for long-term strategies in addressing security issues in Africa.
Islamic State branches in Africa adapt to local politics and grievances for funding.
Western powers' failed strategies in Africa highlight the need for long-term solutions beyond military interventions.
Deep dives
Islamic State Presence in Africa
Islamic State has established various branches across Africa, including in the Greater Sahara, Western Africa, Mozambique, the Congo, and Somalia. Each branch adapts to local politics and grievances, such as internal conflicts and anti-government sentiments. These outfits rely on local taxation for funding and are influenced by ideological and religious beliefs.
Threat to African States
Islamic State's presence in Africa poses challenges to the stability of countries like Mali, facing defensive struggles against jihadist outfits. The territorial control of Mali is at risk, with Western powers like France showing weaknesses in protection strategies. The failed strategies of Western interventions highlight the need for long-term solutions beyond military interventions.
Effectiveness of Western Intervention
Historical Western interventions in Africa have aimed to manage security threats rather than achieve long-term success. The lack of territorial control by Western forces and a focus on preventing attacks in Europe may lead to unsustainable strategies. The reliance on African nations for intervention raises questions about the capacity and effectiveness of regional powers.
Challenges in Identifying Intervention Partners
Identifying capable African nations for intervention efforts presents challenges due to internal issues within potential regional powers like Nigeria, South Africa, and Ethiopia. The limitations of these countries in handling domestic challenges hinder their effectiveness in regional security initiatives. The search for intervention partners may lead to considerations of countries like Rwanda, Algeria, and Chad, each with distinct drawbacks and vulnerabilities.
Why did Islamic State target Russia and is the terror group still a big threat in the Middle East and Africa? Andrew Mueller speaks to Mark Galeotti, General David Petraeus, Sanam Vakil and Stig Jarle Hansen.