Today’s guest is Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, Global Chief Economist at BCG and author Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk.

In today’s episode, Philipp starts by sharing his framework to assess macroeconomic risk, emphasizing the importance of adapting to changing global conditions. Then he applies that framework to the world today and shares his view on tariffs and changing trade relations, the impact of AI on labor and the deflationary effects of technology. He also covers global currencies, including the dollar and gold, and if he believes we are headed for a recession.

(0:00) Starts

(1:07) Rejecting the master model mentality

(3:34) The allure of doom

(8:08) Historical recession risk frameworks

(14:00) Public debt, balance sheets, and global tariff impacts

(19:41) Sentiment indicators

(24:41) Wealth distribution in different regions

(28:44) AI's impact on labor

(33:05) De-dollarization

(40:02) Most memorable investment

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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.

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Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com).

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