Deep Dive into Global Economic and Market Outlook, and AI's Role with Joaquin Kritz Lara

Dec 7, 2023

Ask episode

Chapters

Transcript

Episode notes

Join us in conversation with Joaquin Kritz Lara, Chief Economist at Numera Analytics, as we explore the intricate world of global economics and financial markets. Hosted by Pierre Daillie and Richard Laterman, the discussion delves into the nuances of macroeconometrics, the dynamics of inflation, and the complexities of investment strategies in today's volatile market.

Joaquin brings his extensive experience in macroeconomic analysis and model building, offering unique insights into the causal relationships between economic variables and their impact on financial markets. The conversation also touches on the rigidity of Europe's job markets, the influence of geopolitical events, and the critical role of domain knowledge in leveraging AI tools like ChatGPT for economic analysis.

===========================

Timestamped Highlights

===========================

[00:01:16] Introduction of Joaquin Kritz Lara, emphasizing his role and expertise in the financial sector.

[00:07:23] Discussion on macroeconomic dynamics and Fed policy impacts on financial markets, identifying a late-cycle stage in G10 countries.

[00:22:59] Analysis of the lag between real interest rate changes and consumption growth in developed markets, indicating a late-cycle economic stage.

[00:25:30] Examination of the slow-moving banking crisis and its effects on the international demand for U.S. Treasuries and term premiums.

[00:34:00] Conversation about the final stage of an economic expansion phase and the determination of optimal asset allocation weights for different investors.

[00:50:10] Discussion on complementing stock-bond portfolios in light of paradigm shifts, focusing on asset class correlations and regime shifts.

[01:29:49] Discussion on the limitations of AI tools like ChatGPT in financial analysis, highlighting the importance of domain knowledge.

[01:31:51] Conclusion of the discussion, expressing appreciation for Joaquin Kritz Lara's insights and mentioning the sharing of research for further queries.

===========================

Where to find Joaquin Kritz Lara

===========================

Joaquin Kritz Lara on Linkedin

Numera Analytics

===========================

Quoted Research

===========================

Numera Analytics - US Asset Allocation - October 2023

Numera Analytics - Global Asset Allocation - October 2023

Numera Analytics - Top Conviction Calls - Week 42 - October 2023