Understanding the diploma divide, with Matt Grossmann and Dave Hopkins

Apr 3, 2025

Joining the discussion are Dave Hopkins, an associate professor at Boston College focusing on political behavior, and Matt Grossmann, a political science professor and director at Michigan State University. They dive into the changing political landscape, emphasizing how college-educated voters increasingly lean toward the Democratic Party, while non-college-educated groups support Republicans. The duo explores the implications of this 'diploma divide', the role of social media in shaping political narratives, and the challenges Democrats face in reconnecting with the working class amidst these cultural shifts.

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INSIGHT

Diploma Divide Drives Realignment

Matt Grossmann says the biggest recent change is college-educated voters moving to Democrats while non-college voters move to Republicans.
He frames this as part of an international shift tied to higher education and cultural liberalism.

INSIGHT

Culture Shapes Politics, Not Just Elections

Grossmann and Hopkins argue cultural change from universities, media, and institutions reshaped politics beyond elections.
Dave Hopkins stresses these are long societal transformations unfolding since the 1960s across rich countries.

INSIGHT

Social Change Outlasts Policy Wins

Matt Grossmann notes cultural shifts like growing LGBT identification continue despite electoral or policy setbacks.
He cites Gallup trends showing rising identification, especially among younger cohorts.

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The most important U.S. political trend of the 21st century, according to most observers, is the increasing tendency of college-educated voters to support the Democratic Party and for non-college-educated voters to support the Republican Party. In many ways, the two parties have swapped their historic bases. When John F. Kennedy won the presidency in 1960, Democrats still considered themselves to be a working-class party. Kennedy carried white voters without college degrees by a two-to-one margin but lost college-educated whites by an identical margin. Now those ratios are reversed, as Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris in 2024 won college-educated voters by a comfortable margin but lost bigly to Trump among non-college-educated voters — with notable declines among non-college-educated minority voters compared to 2020.

Political scientists Matt Grossmann and Dave Hopkins are the co-authors of a recent book that examines not just the fact of this educational polarization but also its broader implications. Polarized by Degrees: How the Diploma Divide and the Culture War Transformed American Politics demonstrates how Democrats increasingly are absorbing the cultural liberalism and social values of the college-educated class, while Republicans more and more define themselves as a party tilting against establishments, elites, experts, and intellectuals.

In this podcast discussion, Grossmann and Hopkins argue that educated liberals are winning the culture war, particularly with regard to the secularization of American public life and increasing social acceptance of single parenthood, gay marriage, racial and ethnic diversity, and other left-leaning values. But they also believe that these victories for liberalism don’t necessarily translate into electoral victories for the Democratic Party, or for other liberal parties around the world. On the contrary, the backlash against these changes has empowered populist revolts in many countries and led to a widespread collapse in public trust toward most social institutions. But the result has been that Republicans under Trump have what Hopkins and Grossman term “power without credibility”: the power to destroy institutions without the ability to reorient them in a more conservative direction or to halt the movement in public opinion toward cultural liberalism.